Fair prediction of 2-year stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Objective: This study aims to develop machine learning models that provide both accurate and equitable predictions of 2-year stroke risk for patients with atrial fibrillation across diverse racial groups.

Materials and methods: Our study utilized structured electronic health records (EHR) data from the All of Us Research Program. Machine learning models (LightGBM) were utilized to capture the relations between stroke risks and the predictors used by the widely recognized CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. We mitigated the racial disparity by creating a representative tuning set, customizing tuning criteria, and setting binary thresholds separately for subgroups. We constructed a hold-out test set that not only supports temporal validation but also includes a larger proportion of Black/African Americans for fairness validation.

Results: Compared to the original CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, significant improvements were achieved by modeling their predictors using machine learning models (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve from near 0.70 to above 0.80). Furthermore, applying our disparity mitigation strategies can effectively enhance model fairness compared to the conventional cross-validation approach.

Discussion: Modeling CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors with LightGBM and our disparity mitigation strategies achieved decent discriminative performance and excellent fairness performance. In addition, this approach can provide a complete interpretation of each predictor. These highlight its potential utility in clinical practice.

Conclusions: Our research presents a practical example of addressing clinical challenges through the All of Us Research Program data. The disparity mitigation framework we proposed is adaptable across various models and data modalities, demonstrating broad potential in clinical informatics.