绿色债券能否成为股票投资者的避风港?

Thomas Flavin, Lisa Sheenan
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摘要

我们通过分析绿色债券与股票及其他替代避险资产(即主权债券和黄金)之间的关系,研究绿色债券能否成为股票投资者的避险资产。避险资产是指在股市低迷时与股票呈现零或负相关性的资产。我们使用 Acharya 等人的边际预期缺口(《金融研究评论》,30(1),第 2-47 页,2017 年),并通过比较马尔可夫切换 VAR 模型中与制度相关的 GIRF,分析了资产类别之间的相互关系。我们的研究结果表明,绿色债券并不是股票投资者的避风港资产,而是在市场压力时期表现出正相关性。在不同的市场条件下,主权债券在提供多样化收益方面最为一致,而黄金则在除极少数极端动荡时期以外的所有时期都是避险资产。
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Can green bonds be a safe haven for equity investors?
We investigate if green bonds can act as a safe‐haven asset for equity investors by analysing their relationship with stocks and other alternative safe havens, namely sovereign bonds and gold. Safe havens are defined as assets that exhibit zero or negative comovement with equity during a stock market downturn. We analyse the interrelationships between the asset classes using the Marginal Expected Shortfall of Acharya et al. (The Review of Financial Studies, 30(1), pp. 2–47, 2017) and by comparing the regime‐dependent GIRFs from a Markov‐switching VAR model. Our results suggest that green bonds are not safe haven assets for equity investors but rather show positive comovement during periods of market stress. The sovereign bond is the most consistent in delivering diversification benefits across market conditions, while gold acts as a safe‐haven asset during all regimes except during rare periods of extreme turbulence.
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