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Monetary policy and equity returns: The role of investor risk aversion 货币政策与股票回报:投资者风险规避的作用
Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3047
Licheng Zhang
This article examines the role of investor risk aversion in the transmission of monetary policy to stock returns based on U.S. data. Our results show that following an expansionary monetary policy shock, investor risk aversion falls, leading to a decrease in the equity risk premium and an increase in equity returns. Moreover, the returns of high‐beta stocks increase much more than those of low‐beta stocks. Finally, we investigate the mechanism through mutual fund flows. We find that high‐beta funds attract greater inflows in response to lower interest rates, and there is a positive relationship between fund returns and flows. Our findings have policy implications for financial stability.
本文基于美国数据研究了投资者风险规避在货币政策向股票回报率传导过程中的作用。我们的研究结果表明,在扩张性货币政策冲击之后,投资者的风险规避下降,从而导致股票风险溢价下降,股票回报率上升。此外,高贝塔股票的收益率增幅远大于低贝塔股票。最后,我们研究了共同基金流动的机制。我们发现,高贝塔基金在利率降低时会吸引更多资金流入,而且基金回报与资金流量之间存在正相关关系。我们的研究结果对金融稳定具有政策意义。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary policy transmission under pandemic uncertainty: Effect on banks' risk and capital adjustments 大流行病不确定性下的货币政策传导:对银行风险和资本调整的影响
Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3044
Moau Yong Toh, Dekui Jia
This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on the simultaneous adjustments in asset portfolio risk and capital of banks amidst the uncertainty of the COVID‐19 pandemic, focusing on the 12 largest economies from 2018 Q1 to 2021 Q4. Results indicate that banks show lower portfolio risk and capital levels when the monetary policy stance is eased. However, amid heightened pandemic uncertainty, the risk‐reducing effect of monetary policy on banks amplifies, while bank capital levels remain unchanged. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that banks with higher levels of diversification and herding are more responsive to interest rates amid pandemic uncertainty, exhibiting lower risk exposure in their asset portfolios. Banks in countries adopting negative interest rate policies also tend to assume greater asset risk to accommodate the intended stimulus of monetary policies.
本文以 2018 年第一季度至 2021 年第四季度的 12 个最大经济体为研究对象,探讨了在 COVID-19 大流行病的不确定性下,货币政策对银行同时调整资产组合风险和资本的影响。结果表明,当货币政策立场宽松时,银行的资产组合风险和资本水平较低。然而,在大流行病不确定性加剧的情况下,货币政策对银行的风险降低效应放大,而银行资本水平保持不变。异质性分析表明,在大流行病的不确定性中,多样化和羊群效应水平较高的银行对利率的反应更灵敏,其资产组合的风险敞口较低。采用负利率政策的国家的银行也倾向于承担更大的资产风险,以适应货币政策的预期刺激。
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引用次数: 0
International mergers and acquisitions and institutional differences: An integrated approach 国际并购与制度差异:综合方法
Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3033
Andrzej Cieślik, Monika Tarsalewska
In this paper we study the role of institutional differences in bilateral mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in an integrated framework. We contribute to the literature on the drivers of international M&As by integrating the gravity, knowledge‐capital (KK) and political economy theory (PET) approaches and explain cross‐border M&As using an international and comprehensive dataset. We estimate the model using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method with high dimension fixed effects. The main findings are that the variables that affect cross‐border M&As can be derived from three different approaches explaining activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs): the gravity equation, the KK model, and the PET frameworks. In particular, variables related to geographical proximity, size and similarity of markets and differences in regulatory quality are important in explaining M&A activity.
本文在一个综合框架内研究了制度差异在双边并购(M&As)中的作用。通过整合引力、知识资本(KK)和政治经济学理论(PET)方法,我们为国际并购驱动因素方面的文献做出了贡献,并利用国际综合数据集解释了跨境并购。我们采用泊松伪最大似然法(PPML)和高维度固定效应对模型进行了估计。主要发现是,影响跨境 M&As 的变量可以从解释跨国企业活动的三种不同方法中得出:引力方程、KK 模型和 PET 框架。特别是,与地理邻近性、市场规模和相似性以及监管质量差异有关的变量对于解释跨国并购活动非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Islamic mutual funds: Seasonal patterns and determinants of performance across regions 伊斯兰共同基金:各地区业绩的季节性模式和决定因素
Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3042
Chiraz Labidi, Jose Arreola Hernandez, Gazi Salah Uddin, Ali Ahmed, Muhammad Yahya, Seong‐Min Yoon
Our study aims to investigate the seasonal patterns of returns and evaluate the effects that various factors have on the performance in a large data set (125 funds) of Islamic mutual funds from four regions: Asia‐Pacific, North America, Europe, and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We employed indicators for consumer sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, implied stock market volatility, the trade‐weighted US dollar, the Carhart (1997) risk factors, and idiosyncratic risk. Our findings indicate that the seasonal patterns and determinants of Islamic mutual funds' financial performance tend to differ significantly across the regions. This may be explained by the different cultural/religious settings, the different backgrounds of the market participants as well as differences in the holiday seasons and end of fiscal year/taxation across regions/countries. Global fund managers and investors may benefit from the obtained results when constructing portfolios and designing hedging strategies.
我们的研究旨在调查回报的季节性模式,并评估来自四个地区的伊斯兰共同基金的大型数据集(125 个基金)中各种因素对业绩的影响:我们采用了消费者情绪指标、经济政策不确定性指标、隐含风险指标等指标。我们采用了消费者情绪、经济政策不确定性、隐含股市波动性、贸易加权美元、Carhart(1997 年)风险因素和特异性风险等指标。我们的研究结果表明,伊斯兰共同基金财务业绩的季节性模式和决定因素在不同地区往往存在显著差异。这可能是由于不同的文化/宗教背景、市场参与者的不同背景以及不同地区/国家的节假日和财政年度结束/税收方面的差异造成的。全球基金经理和投资者在构建投资组合和设计套期保值策略时,可从所获得的结果中获益。
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引用次数: 0
A portfolio diversification measure in the unit interval: A coherent and practical approach 单位区间内的投资组合多样化度量:连贯实用的方法
Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3041
Yuri Salazar Flores, Adan Diaz‐Hernandez, Oralia Nolasco‐Jauregui, Luis Alberto Quezada‐Tellez
In this article, we introduce and examine the efficiency of a portfolio diversification measure. Using the recently developed coherence properties for diversification measures as well as other criteria, we show that the novel measure outperforms the most commonly used diversification measures. Although similar in shape to other measures, our measure is the only one that satisfies all nine coherence properties whilst being easily interpreted. After testing interpretability and coherence for all measures, we perform an empirical analysis divided into two main parts. In the first part, we test some common diversification measures in a Gaussian context and in the second part we consider three empirical portfolios during the COVID‐19 pandemic. We establish the efficiency of our measure in capturing the changing level of diversification in empirical portfolios. We believe these results imply a competitive advantage for our measure and make it relevant for econometricians, practitioners and decision‐makers in general in a portfolio optimisation context.
在本文中,我们介绍并研究了一种投资组合多样化措施的效率。通过使用最近开发的分散化度量的一致性属性以及其他标准,我们表明新的度量方法优于最常用的分散化度量方法。虽然在形状上与其他衡量标准相似,但我们的衡量标准是唯一一个既满足所有九个一致性属性,又易于解释的衡量标准。在测试了所有测量方法的可解释性和一致性之后,我们进行了实证分析,主要分为两个部分。在第一部分中,我们测试了高斯背景下一些常见的分散措施;在第二部分中,我们考虑了 COVID-19 大流行期间的三个经验投资组合。我们确定了我们的衡量方法在捕捉经验投资组合中不断变化的多样化水平方面的效率。我们相信,这些结果意味着我们的方法具有竞争优势,并使其与计量经济学家、从业人员以及投资组合优化背景下的一般决策者息息相关。
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引用次数: 0
The moderating role of governance on the nexus of financial crime and sustainable development 治理对金融犯罪与可持续发展之间关系的调节作用
Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3043
Monica Violeta Achim, Viorela Ligia Văidean, Nawazish Mirza
This study aims to highlight the connection between good governance and financial crime to achieve optimal sustainable development for society. Governance issues are integral to a sustainable economy, as sustainability cannot be considered without strong measures to combat financial crime. The theoretical foundation of this relationship posits that enhanced institutional quality and laws reduce opportunities to circumvent environmental regulations, thereby improving the ecological footprint. This paper examines the moderating role of governance on the impact of four types of crime—corruption, shadow economy, money laundering, and cybercrime—on sustainable development indicators such as the Human Development Index, Environmental Performance Index, carbon dioxide emissions and greenhouse gas emissions. The sample includes 185 countries, analysed over the period from 2015 to 2022. Methodologies used range from the Pooled OLS method for panel data with interactions to panel threshold regression modelling. Our findings provide strong evidence of the mediating role of good governance in mitigating the negative impact of financial crime on sustainable development, potentially reducing it by up to half. This study offers insights into how improving governance can manage the environmental effects of financial crimes, thereby enhancing sustainable development and reducing financial and economic crime.
本研究旨在强调良好治理与金融犯罪之间的联系,以实现社会的最佳可持续发展。治理问题是可持续经济不可或缺的一部分,因为如果不采取强有力的措施打击金融犯罪,可持续发展就无从谈起。这种关系的理论基础认为,制度质量和法律的提高会减少规避环境法规的机会,从而改善生态足迹。本文研究了治理对四类犯罪--腐败、影子经济、洗钱和网络犯罪--对人类发展指数、环境绩效指数、二氧化碳排放量和温室气体排放量等可持续发展指标的影响的调节作用。样本包括 185 个国家,分析时间跨度为 2015 年至 2022 年。所使用的方法既有针对具有交互作用的面板数据的集合 OLS 方法,也有面板阈值回归模型。我们的研究结果有力地证明了良好治理在减轻金融犯罪对可持续发展的负面影响方面所起的中介作用,有可能将其减少一半。这项研究为改善治理如何管理金融犯罪的环境影响,从而促进可持续发展和减少金融与经济犯罪提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate cash policy and double machine learning 企业现金政策与双重机器学习
Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3039
Hadi Movaghari, Serafeim Tsoukas, Evangelos Vagenas‐Nanos
We are the first to explore the role of firm‐level drivers in corporate cash policy applying cutting‐edge double machine learning technique. We identify tangibility of assets and R&D spending as two main driving forces behind the cash increase when they are considered both independently and jointly. Furthermore, our findings support the relevance of the transaction cost model and the refinancing risk of long‐term debt at the beginning of the sample period. In contrast, precautionary motive emerges as more pertinent in contemporary times. Our results are robust to alternative machine learners, cash proxies and estimation methods.
我们首次运用最前沿的双重机器学习技术探讨了企业层面的驱动因素在企业现金政策中的作用。我们发现,资产有形化和研发支出是现金增加背后的两个主要驱动因素,这两个因素既可以单独考虑,也可以共同考虑。此外,我们的研究结果还支持交易成本模型和样本期初长期债务再融资风险的相关性。相比之下,预防动机在当代显得更为重要。我们的结果对其他机器学习器、现金替代物和估计方法都是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock market volatility 预测股市波动的利率期限结构
Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3029
Anastasios Megaritis, Alexandros Kontonikas, Nikolaos Vlastakis, Athanasios Triantafyllou
We examine the forecasting power of the volatility of the slope of the US Treasury yield curve on US stock market volatility. Consistent with theoretical asset pricing models, we find that the volatility of the slope of the term structure of interest rates has significant forecasting power on stock market volatility for forecasting horizon ranging from 1 up to 12 months. Moreover, the term structure volatility has significant forecasting power when used for volatility predictions of the intra‐day returns of S&P500 constituents, with the predictive power being higher for stocks belonging to the telecommunications and financial sector. Our forecasting models show that the forecasting power of yield curve volatility is higher to and absorbs that of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Uncertainty, showing that the main channel through which the yield curve volatility affects the stock market is not only related with uncertainty about monetary policy actions or policy rates, but also with uncertainty regarding the future cash flows and dividend payments of US equities. Lastly, we show that the forecasting power of term structure volatility significantly increases during the post‐2007 Great recession period which coincides with the Fed adopting unconventional monetary policies to stimulate the economy.
我们研究了美国国债收益率曲线斜率波动对美国股市波动的预测能力。与理论资产定价模型一致,我们发现利率期限结构斜率波动在 1 至 12 个月的预测期限内对股市波动具有显著的预测能力。此外,在预测 S&P500 指数成份股的日内收益率波动时,期限结构波动率也具有显著的预测能力,其中对电信和金融行业股票的预测能力更高。我们的预测模型显示,收益率曲线波动的预测能力高于并吸收了经济政策不确定性和货币政策不确定性的预测能力,这表明收益率曲线波动影响股市的主要渠道不仅与货币政策行动或政策利率的不确定性有关,还与美国股票未来现金流和股息支付的不确定性有关。最后,我们表明,在 2007 年后的大衰退时期,期限结构波动的预测能力显著增强,而这一时期恰好是美联储采取非常规货币政策刺激经济的时期。
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引用次数: 0
An integrative model for understanding cryptocurrency investment‐related behaviours: A comparison between millennials and pre‐millennials 理解加密货币投资相关行为的综合模型:千禧一代与前千禧一代的比较
Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3031
Christian Nedu Osakwe, Oluwatobi A. Ogunmokun, Islam Elgammal, Darya Baeva, Victoria Kamneva
This article adopts the value‐attitude‐behavioural (VAB) and attitude‐behaviour‐context (ABC) theoretical lenses to develop an integrative model to examine attitudinal and behavioural responses to cryptocurrency investment. It also investigates the moderating role of generational differences (pre‐millennials vs. millennials). The study showed that perceived value is closely associated with the attitude towards cryptocurrency investment which, in turn, is strongly associated with the willingness to make and recommend cryptocurrency investments. Results further reveal that contextual factors such as convertibility and sugrophobia, which reflect the fear of being duped, strongly influence individuals' willingness to recommend cryptocurrency investments to others. Finally, results indicate that generational differences play an important moderating role.
本文采用价值-态度-行为(VAB)和态度-行为-情境(ABC)理论视角,建立了一个综合模型来研究对加密货币投资的态度和行为反应。研究还探讨了代际差异(前千禧一代与千禧一代)的调节作用。研究表明,感知价值与对加密货币投资的态度密切相关,而态度又与进行和推荐加密货币投资的意愿密切相关。研究结果进一步显示,可兑换性和恐糖症(反映了对上当受骗的恐惧)等背景因素强烈影响着个人向他人推荐加密货币投资的意愿。最后,结果表明代际差异起到了重要的调节作用。
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引用次数: 0
Green banks versus non‐green banks: A financial stability comparative analysis in terms of CAMEL ratios 绿色银行与非绿色银行:从 CAMEL 比率看金融稳定性比较分析
Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3028
Ioannis Malandrakis, Konstantinos Drakos
This study examines green and non‐green‐banks from a financial stability point of view and specifically whether there are any discernible performance differences between the two groups. Using the supervisory ratios namely CAMEL variables, and employing panel data techniques (random effects model) and a global panel data set of 165 banks from 38 countries for the period 1999 to 2021, we adopt the Differences‐In‐Differences approach to examine whether green (“treatment” group) and non‐green (“control” group) banks exhibit differential behaviour, using the outbreak of the financial crisis (2008) as the time of intervention. Our results mainly show that green banks differ (and specifically perform better than their non‐green counterparts) only in terms of Total Capital, Tier 1 Capital, and NPLs/Reserve for Loan Losses ratios during and after the financial crisis. As for the rest of the CAMEL factors, it seems that both groups exhibit the same behaviour, especially in the post‐crisis period. Thus, green banks are not stronger in total than their non‐green counterparts in terms of financial stability. We also find that the financial crisis had either a positive or a negative effect on most of the CAMEL factors of both bank types, except for the Leverage Ratio (a capital adequacy proxy) and Operational Expenses/Operational Income ratios (a management quality proxy), which proved crisis‐insensitive.
本研究从金融稳定性的角度考察了绿色银行和非绿色银行,特别是这两类银行之间是否存在明显的绩效差异。我们使用监管比率(即 CAMEL 变量),并采用面板数据技术(随机效应模型)和来自 38 个国家的 165 家银行的全球面板数据集(时间跨度为 1999 年至 2021 年),以金融危机爆发(2008 年)为干预时间,采用差分法研究绿色银行("处理 "组)和非绿色银行("控制 "组)是否表现出不同行为。我们的研究结果主要表明,在金融危机期间和之后,绿色银行仅在总资本、一级资本和不良贷款/贷款损失准备金比率方面存在差异(具体表现优于非绿色银行)。至于 CAMEL 的其他因素,两组银行似乎表现出相同的行为,尤其是在危机后时期。因此,就金融稳定性而言,绿色银行总体上并不比非绿色银行更强。我们还发现,金融危机对两类银行的大多数 CAMEL 指标都产生了积极或消极的影响,只有杠杆比率(资本充足率指标)和运营支出/运营收入比率(管理质量指标)对危机不敏感。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Finance and Economics
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