Differences in the cost and environmental impact between the current diet in Brazil and healthy and sustainable diets: a modeling study.

Background: While healthy and sustainable diets benefit human and planetary health, their monetary cost has a direct impact on consumer food choices. This study aimed to identify the cost and environmental impact of the current Brazilian diet (CBD) and compare it with healthy and sustainable diets.

Methods: Data from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey 2017/18 and the Footprints of Foods and Culinary Preparations Consumed in Brazil database were used for a modeling study comparing the cost of healthy and sustainable diets (based on the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines (BDG) diet and the EAT-Lancet diet) versus the CBD. The DIETCOST program generated multiple food baskets for each scenario (Montecarlo simulations). Nutritional quality, cost, and environmental impact measures (carbon footprint (CF) and water footprint (WF)) were estimated for all diets and compared by ANOVA. Simple linear regressions used standardized environmental impacts measures to estimate differentials in costs and environmental impacts among diets scenarios.

Results: We observed significant differences in costs/1000 kcal. The BDG diet was cheaper (BRL$4.9 (95%IC:4.8;4.9) ≈ USD$1.5) than the CBD (BRL$5.6 (95%IC:5.6;5.7) ≈ USD$1.8) and the EAT-Lancet diet (BRL$6.1 (95%IC:6.0;6.1) ≈ USD$1.9). Ultra-processed foods (UPF) and red meat contributed the most to the CBD cost/1000 kcal, while fruits and vegetables made the lowest contribution to CBD. Red meat, sugary drinks, and UPF were the main contributors to the environmental impacts of the CBD. The environmental impact/1000 kcal of the CBD was nearly double (CF:3.1 kg(95%IC: 3.0;3.1); WF:2,705 L 95%IC:2,671;2,739)) the cost of the BDG diet (CF:1.4 kg (95%IC:1.4;1.4); WF:1,542 L (95%IC:1,524;1,561)) and EAT-Lancet diet (CF:1.1 kg (95%IC:1.0;1.1); WF:1,448 L (95%IC:1,428;1,469)). A one standard deviation increase in standardized CF corresponded to an increase of BRL$0.48 in the cost of the CBD, similar to standardized WF (BRL$0.56). A similar relationship between the environmental impact and the cost of the BDG (CF: BRL$0.20; WF: BRL$0.33) and EAT-Lancet (CF: BRL$0.04; WF: BRL$0.18) was found, but with a less pronounced effect.

Conclusions: The BDG diet was cost-effective, while the EAT-Lancet diet was slightly pricier than the CBD. The CBD presented almost double the CF and WF compared to the BDG and EAT-Lancet diets. The lower cost in each diet was associated with lower environmental impact, particularly for the BDG and EAT-Lancet diets. Multisectoral public policies must be applied to guide individuals and societies towards healthier and more sustainable eating patterns.