The development of mathematics expectancy-value profiles during the secondary–tertiary transition into STEM fields

To master the secondary–tertiary transition into fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), academic self-beliefs play a pivotal role, especially those related to learning mathematics. The framework of expectancy-value theory has been used widely in primary and secondary education and partly in tertiary education to assess the self-beliefs of students in terms of expectancy of success and perceived value of mathematics. Based on this framework, we measured how the intrinsic value, the attainment value, the utility value, and the cost of learning mathematics as well as the expectancy of success when learning mathematics developed during the secondary–tertiary transition of students into STEM fields. Data were collected in a quantitative repeated-measures questionnaire study with two measurement points (measurement point 1: n = 710, measurement point 2: n = 487, listwise: n = 409). We conducted a latent profile analysis to identify the prevalent patterns of mathematics self-beliefs, called profiles, at each of the two measurement points. We studied the relation of these profiles to prior education, achievement at school, and achievement at university. By performing a latent transition analysis, we determined the probabilities of transitioning from the initial profiles to the posterior profiles. Our analysis revealed four distinct prevalent profiles at each measurement point, ranging from highly favorable (i.e., high expectancy, high value, low cost) to highly unfavorable with respect to learning mathematics. The profiles with favorable manifestations remained stable over time, while those with undesirable manifestations deteriorated further. We observed a sharp increase in cost across all profiles. Prior achievement correlated strongly with profile membership. The expenditure of time and energy increased sharply during the secondary–tertiary transition, independently of the students’ initial motivational patterns. The perceived utility of mathematics for potential future careers was shown to be a significant source of motivation. The role of mathematics in future careers should thus be made visible in university teaching. Keeping the detrimental development of initially undesirable motivational profiles in mind, university teachers should create ample opportunities for students to gain a sense of accomplishment.