The illusion of the shared electric automated mobility transition

Shared electric automated vehicles (AVs) are advertised as the silver bullet for the sustainable transition of private internal combustion engine-based automobility by private and public entities. We explore the extent to which private automobility will be reconfigured into a private electric automated mobility regime or substituted by a shared electric automated mobility regime that could effectively address societal sustainability challenges. We draw from the multi-level perspective of technological transition, develop a conceptual model outlining possible transition advancements towards private and shared electric automated mobility and review pertinent literature supporting such developments. Our analysis reveals that shared, particularly pooled, mobility emerges slowly (niche level). Key actors resist a shift from private to shared electric automated mobility for economic (vehicle manufacturers), instrumental, affective, symbolic (users and societal groups), tax-revenue, governance and administrative (public authorities) reasons (regime level). The private automobility regime receives only moderate pressure from the socio-technical landscape pertaining to safety, congestion and environmental issues and effectively reacts by electrifying and automating vehicles (landscape level). We conclude that the most likely transition will primarily entail privately-owned electric AVs as opposed to shared (especially pooled) AVs, unless a landscape “shock” such as a climate breakdown, energy crisis or a significant political shift towards collective mobility exerts substantial pressure on the regime. Hence, the socioeconomic benefits of the so-called “three revolutions of automobility” could be diminished.