能源(不)依赖和国家专业化是全球竞争力的一个因素

A. G. Simonov
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摘要

文章介绍了对世界经济参与者的全球竞争力与其能源系统和专业化之间的相互关系进行全面研究的初步结果。文章结构在逻辑上分为三个部分。第一部分试图评估最大国家的能源依赖性及其动态。作者就世界能源市场上不同国家角色的起源及其发展前景提出了假设。第二部分致力于研究二十一世纪第一季度经济增长的性质及其与工业发展和特定产品(包括燃料产品和能源密集型制造业)专业化的相互联系。在第三部分中,文章按商品分类(HS2),特别是按商品名称(HS4)探讨了国际商品贸易前景。最后,作者得出结论,并从最重要的商品项目以及世界经济参与者的角度提出了预测要点。
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ENERGY (IN)DEPENDENCE AND NATIONAL SPECIALIZATION AS A FACTOR OF GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS
The article presents preliminary results of a comprehensive interrelation study of the global competitiveness of the world economy actors with their energy systems and specialization. The article structure is logically split into three parts. The first one presents an attempt of evaluating energy dependence of the largest nations and its dynamics. The author proposes hypotheses regarding origins of different national roles on the world energy market and prospects of their development. The second part is dedicated to researching the nature of economic growth in the first quarter of XXI century and its interconnection with industrial development and specialization on particular goods, including fuel products and energy-intensive manufactures. In the third part the article explores international merchandise trade landscape by merchandise chapters (HS2) and in particular cases by headings (HS4). Finally, the author makes a conclusion and offers prognostic points in terms of the most significant merchandise items as well as in terms of world economy actors.
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