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IMPACT OF SOME FACTORS ON PRICING IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET OF RUSSIAN MEGACITIES 某些因素对俄罗斯特大城市房地产市场定价的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_138
S. Mudrova, V. Bolonkin, A. E. Davydov
The authors analyze pricing in the residential real estate market in Moscow and St. Petersburg – the largest cities of the Russian Federation in the article. The issue of the cost of residential real estate is one of the most important for the residents of Russian megapolises. Megapolicies are the largest centers of migration, both from other regions and from other countries. The population of such cities is expanding at a significant rate, and the construction industry is increasing the rate of creation of new real estate objects. Under such conditions, it is crucial to realize the dependence of real estate value and key externalities.Within the framework of the study, the authors rely on the works in the field of real estate valuation and statistical methodology. The group of authors puts forward statistical hypotheses about the impact of some factors, in particular the level of cumulative inflation, the key rate set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the average level of wages in the region and the weighted average rate on mortgage loans to citizens on the formation of the weighted average cost per square meter of housing in Russian cities.The statistical method of factor analysis is used to assess the significance of each of the factor variables on the resulting parameter. Regression modeling allows estimating the degree of impact of significant factors on the cost per square meter of residential real estate. The models allow to assess the trends of changes in the cost of real estate on the primary and secondary residential real estate markets in Russian megacities, as well as provide an opportunity to consider the differentiation in the impact of each factor between different types of markets in different cities.The results of the study may be useful in building industry forecasts and developing government measures to support residential construction.
作者在文章中分析了俄罗斯联邦最大城市莫斯科和圣彼得堡住宅房地产市场的定价情况。住宅房地产成本问题是俄罗斯特大城市居民最关心的问题之一。特大城市是最大的移民中心,既有来自其他地区的移民,也有来自其他国家的移民。这些城市的人口正以显著的速度增长,建筑业也在不断提高新房地产项目的建设速度。在这种情况下,实现房地产价值与关键外部因素的依存关系至关重要。在本研究框架内,作者依据的是房地产估价和统计方法领域的著作。作者小组就某些因素的影响提出了统计假设,特别是累积通货膨胀水平、俄罗斯联邦中央银行设定的关键利率、地区平均工资水平和公民抵押贷款加权平均利率对俄罗斯城市每平方米住房加权平均成本形成的影响。回归模型可以估算重要因素对住宅房地产每平方米成本的影响程度。通过这些模型可以评估俄罗斯特大城市一级和二级住宅房地产市场的房地产成本变化趋势,还可以考虑各因素对不同城市不同类型市场的影响差异。
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引用次数: 0
ENERGY (IN)DEPENDENCE AND NATIONAL SPECIALIZATION AS A FACTOR OF GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS 能源(不)依赖和国家专业化是全球竞争力的一个因素
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_106
A. G. Simonov
The article presents preliminary results of a comprehensive interrelation study of the global competitiveness of the world economy actors with their energy systems and specialization. The article structure is logically split into three parts. The first one presents an attempt of evaluating energy dependence of the largest nations and its dynamics. The author proposes hypotheses regarding origins of different national roles on the world energy market and prospects of their development. The second part is dedicated to researching the nature of economic growth in the first quarter of XXI century and its interconnection with industrial development and specialization on particular goods, including fuel products and energy-intensive manufactures. In the third part the article explores international merchandise trade landscape by merchandise chapters (HS2) and in particular cases by headings (HS4). Finally, the author makes a conclusion and offers prognostic points in terms of the most significant merchandise items as well as in terms of world economy actors.
文章介绍了对世界经济参与者的全球竞争力与其能源系统和专业化之间的相互关系进行全面研究的初步结果。文章结构在逻辑上分为三个部分。第一部分试图评估最大国家的能源依赖性及其动态。作者就世界能源市场上不同国家角色的起源及其发展前景提出了假设。第二部分致力于研究二十一世纪第一季度经济增长的性质及其与工业发展和特定产品(包括燃料产品和能源密集型制造业)专业化的相互联系。在第三部分中,文章按商品分类(HS2),特别是按商品名称(HS4)探讨了国际商品贸易前景。最后,作者得出结论,并从最重要的商品项目以及世界经济参与者的角度提出了预测要点。
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引用次数: 0
INDIA AND THE CENTRAL ASIAN FACTOR OF EURASIA’S ENERGY AND TRANSPORT SECTOR RESTRUCTURING 印度与欧亚能源和运输部门结构调整的中亚因素
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_6
A. Grozin
The article analyzes the prerequisites and main directions of India’s possible actions to expand its influence in the Central Asian region. The author assesses the importance of transport and energy projects in Central Eurasia for India, as one of the key consumers of energy resources from Russia and Central Asian states. Another spotlight of this research is the strategy for expansion of Indian-Uzbek cooperation as the most promising support base for the implementation of India’s geopolitical and geo-economic interests in the region.The ongoing and deepening global geoeconomic and geopolitical transformations are creating a wide field of opportunities for restructuring of the continental energy and transport systems. In these conditions, the Indian leadership is required to take active steps in implementing its foreign policy so as not to remain on the sidelines of large-scale projects for the development of key areas of the continent, including the resource and transit potential of Russia and Central Asia.
文章分析了印度为扩大其在中亚地区的影响力而可能采取的行动的前提条件和主要方向。作为俄罗斯和中亚国家能源资源的主要消费国之一,作者评估了中亚欧亚大陆交通和能源项目对印度的重要性。本研究的另一个亮点是扩大印度与乌兹别克斯坦合作的战略,这是印度在该地区实现地缘政治和地缘经济利益的最有希望的支持基础。在这种情况下,印度领导层必须采取积极措施执行其外交政策,以免在开发非洲大陆关键地区(包括俄罗斯和中亚地区的资源和过境潜力)的大型项目中处于边缘地位。
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引用次数: 0
DOCTRINAL BASIS OF ENERGY POLICY OF MODERN GERMANY 现代德国能源政策的理论基础
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_52
P. M. Sugonyaev
The Federal Republic of Germany has cooperated successfully for many decades, first with the Soviet Union and then with Russia in the energy sector. As a result of this cooperation, serious infrastructure projects have been carried out, connecting both countries with gas and oil pipelines, and the volume of raw materials supplied has also been significant until recently. Both sides benefited from this cooperation, until the Federal Republic of Germany took part in the confrontation with Russia in 2014, and after the start of the special military operation in 2022 it cut off all contacts with our country in this sphere. This article will examine the evolution of the energy policy of the Federal Republic of Germany since its foundation, its main features and characteristics, the volume of cooperation with Russia. In addition, the doctrinal foundations of the modern energy policy of Germany will be studied by analyzing the official documents of this state. The authors used domestic and foreign scientific works and articles, texts of official documents of the Federal Republic of Germany, as well as materials of periodicals on the selected topic. In the course of analyzing the evolution of the energy policy of the Germany, the following conclusions were made: it changed under the influence of scientific technical development, it flexibly responded to emerging challenges, and it was based on pragmatism. However, an analysis of current doctrinal guidelines has shown that Germany is not sovereign in the implementation of its foreign and energy policy, ideology has taken the place of pragmatism, the controversial energy transition policy will be continued under the current coalition government, and its model will even be offered for export.
几十年来,德意志联邦共和国首先与苏联,然后与俄罗斯在能源领域开展了成功的合作。由于这种合作,两国开展了重要的基础设施项目,用天然气和石油管道将两国连接起来,直到最近,原材料的供应量也一直很大。双方都从这种合作中受益,直到德意志联邦共和国在 2014 年参与了与俄罗斯的对抗,并在 2022 年开始特别军事行动后切断了与我国在这一领域的所有联系。本文将研究德意志联邦共和国能源政策自建立以来的演变、其主要特点和特征以及与俄罗斯的合作量。此外,还将通过分析德国的官方文件来研究德国现代能源政策的理论基础。作者使用了国内外的科学著作和文章、德意志联邦共和国官方文件文本以及有关选题的期刊资料。在分析德国能源政策演变的过程中,得出了以下结论:德国能源政策在科学技术发展的影响下发生了变化,灵活应对了新出现的挑战,并以实用主义为基础。然而,对当前理论指导方针的分析表明,德国在执行外交和能源政策方面没有主权,意识形态取代了实用主义,有争议的能源转型政策将在本届联合政府中继续执行,其模式甚至将提供出口。
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引用次数: 0
EXPORT POTENTIAL OF KYRGYZSTAN IN THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX 吉尔吉斯斯坦农工综合体的出口潜力
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_157
L. A. Lalayan
The article examines the export potential of Kyrgyzstan in the agro-industrial complex. The unique geographical location of the country and eco-friendly agriculture contribute to the cultivation of fruits with a large amount of useful micronutrients. In such conditions, Kyrgyz products receive certificates of compliance with international standards. Financial and non-financial export support measures by the Government of the country and the EAEU help farmers to promote their products on international markets.In turn, in the UAE one can observe an increase in the popularity of organic products, including dried fruits. Customs agreements have been concluded between the countries, contributing to stable cooperation. To assess the prospects of trade relations between the countries, the authors conducted a PEST and SWOT analysis. The article presents recommendations for the promotion of Kyrgyz dried fruits in the UAE market.
文章探讨了吉尔吉斯斯坦在农工综合体方面的出口潜力。吉尔吉斯斯坦独特的地理位置和生态友好型农业有助于种植含有大量有用微量营养元素的水果。在这种条件下,吉尔吉斯产品获得了符合国际标准的证书。吉尔吉斯政府和欧亚经济联盟的财政和非财政出口支持措施帮助农民在国际市场上推广自己的产品。两国之间缔结了海关协定,促进了稳定的合作。为了评估两国贸易关系的前景,作者进行了 PEST 和 SWOT 分析。文章提出了在阿联酋市场推广吉尔吉斯干果的建议。
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引用次数: 0
THE ENERGY FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SAUDI ARABIA’S FOREIGN POLICY AT THE PRESENT STAGE 现阶段沙特阿拉伯外交政策发展中的能源因素
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_38
V. D. OSTANIN-GOLOVNYA, V. I. Afanasyev
The article is devoted to the analysis of the energy factor in the formation and development of the modern foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. For decades, the foreign policy, as well as the entire economic system, of the kingdom has been directly dependent on the export of petroleum products and crude oil. Until the beginning of the 2000s western states were the main importers of Saudi energy resources, which directly affected Riyadh’s foreign policy orientation and often had a negative impact on the implementation of national interests and strategic objectives of state development. However, at the present stage, there is a process of formation of a multi-vector foreign policy of Saudi Arabia due to the intensification of trade and economic relations with non-Western states. When analyzing this aspect, the authors paid special attention to the main indicators of diversification of Riyadh’s leading partners, the results of the negotiation process on the kingdom’s accession to BRICS and the development of cooperation within the expanded OPEC format – OPEC+.
本文专门分析了沙特阿拉伯现代外交政策形成和发展过程中的能源因素。几十年来,沙特王国的外交政策以及整个经济体系都直接依赖于石油产品和原油的出口。直到 2000 年代初,西方国家一直是沙特能源资源的主要进口国,这直接影响了利雅得的外交政策取向,并经常对国家利益和国家发展战略目标的实施产生负面影响。然而,在现阶段,由于与非西方国家经贸关系的加强,沙特阿拉伯的多部门外交政策正在形成。在分析这一方面时,作者特别关注利雅得主要合作伙伴多样化的主要指标、沙特加入金砖五国谈判进程的结果以及在扩大的欧佩克形式(欧佩克+)下的合作发展。
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引用次数: 0
PROBLEMS OF GROWTH OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES IN CHINA 中国替代能源发展的问题
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_90
V. A. Prokof’ev
The article is devoted to the analysis of the problems of alternative energy in China. Ensuring economic growth is achieved by stable and sufficient supplies of energy to the needs of industry. Geopolitical tensions give rise to the development of national energy resources and, above all, renewable energy sources, development of which has a number of issues. A detailed examination of the 14th Five-Year (2021–2025) Energy Plan revealed challenges to China’s energy goals. Firstly, the main issue of alternative generation is the high level of «losses», i.e. the need to balance energy production with its consumption. The unevenness of energy production throughout the day, the lack of high-power batteries, as well as high-voltage lines for energy transmission, heighten this problem. Secondly, the struggle for land gives rise to competition with agriculture, construction and industrial sectors. Thirdly, alternative energy generation faces the problem of its insufficient efficiency (characterized by the ratio of energy production/ installed capacity, as well as energy density), which leads to reduction in subsidies and the replacement of renewable energy sources with more efficient, but currently less developed reserves of unconventional gas in China. The problem of subsidies is partly solved by the introduction of «green» financing as well as financing from special funds (AIIB, Silk Road Fund, NDB), that allows the implementation of distributed generation projects by attracting investor funds, as well as supporting promising energy production technologies. Most of the shortcomings relate to renewable energy sources, so China is actively developing other areas – nuclear generation, hydrogen production, and optimizing energy flows between inner regions.
本文主要分析了中国替代能源的问题。要确保经济增长,就必须为工业需求提供稳定充足的能源供应。地缘政治的紧张局势催生了国家能源资源的开发,尤其是可再生能源的开发,而可再生能源的开发存在诸多问题。对 "十四五"(2021-2025 年)能源规划的详细研究揭示了中国能源目标面临的挑战。首先,替代发电的主要问题是 "损失 "严重,即需要平衡能源生产与消费。全天能源生产的不均衡性、大功率电池的缺乏以及用于能源传输的高压线路都加剧了这一问题。其次,争夺土地引发了与农业、建筑业和工业部门的竞争。第三,替代能源发电面临效率不足的问题(以能源产量/装机容量的比率以及能源密度为特征),这导致补贴减少,并以效率更高但目前在中国开发储量较少的非常规天然气替代可再生能源。通过引入 "绿色 "融资和专项基金(亚洲国际投资银行、丝路基金、国家开发银行)融资,部分解决了补贴问题,通过吸引投资者资金,支持有前景的能源生产技术,从而实施分布式发电项目。大部分不足都与可再生能源有关,因此中国正在积极发展其他领域--核能发电、氢气生产以及优化内部地区之间的能源流动。
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引用次数: 0
PROSPECTS OF CENTRAL ASIAN MARKETS FOR RUSSIAN OIL COMPANIES 俄罗斯石油公司的中亚市场前景
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_67
D. D. Vyshegorodtsev
This article is devoted to the current state of the oil sector in the Central Asian countries and an assessment of the prospects of their markets for expanding the presence of Russian companies. The author highlights the main factors that determine the current situation in the oil producing and refining industries in the region: the overall availability of energy resources in general and crude oil in particular, property rights to oil producing and refining enterprises and operating oil pipelines, as well as international agreements in this area concluded over the past five years. The article substantiates the conclusion that today the potential of the region as a transport and logistics corridor and a center for oil production and refining remains largely untapped. In this regard, for Russian companies, the greatest interest lies in measures to establish control over pipelines from countries focused on the export of oil and oil products (Kazakhstan and, to a lesser extent, Turkmenistan) and to strengthen the presence in the domestic markets of those countries that focus on importing energy resources (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) by creating their own transport and refinement infrastructure.
本文主要介绍中亚国家石油行业的现状,以及对这些国家扩大俄罗斯公司存在的市场前景的评估。作者强调了决定该地区石油生产和精炼行业现状的主要因素:能源资源(尤其是原油)的总体可获得性、石油生产和精炼企业的产权、运营中的石油管道,以及过去五年在该领域缔结的国际协议。文章证实了以下结论:如今,该地区作为运输和物流走廊以及石油生产和提炼中心的潜力在很大程度上仍未得到开发。在这方面,俄罗斯公司最感兴趣的是采取措施控制石油和石油产品出口国(哈萨克斯坦,其次是土库曼斯坦)的输油管道,并通过建立自己的运输和提炼基础设施加强在能源进口国(吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦)国内市场的存在。
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引用次数: 0
«3+3» COOPERATION PLATFORM AND PROSPECTS FOR UNBLOCKING TRANSPORT COMMUNICATIONS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS 南高加索地区 "3+3 "合作平台和疏通运输通信的前景
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2024_26_2_22
A. A. Markarov, V. S. Davtya
The article discusses the problems and prospects for the functioning of the «3+3» advisory platform, aimed at unblocking transport communications in the South Caucasus. The authors identify possibilities and obstacles to synchronizing the transport and logistics interests of regional and extra-regional actors. The goals and objectives of the «3+3» initiative are studied in the context of the implementation of the trilateral agreement of November 10, 2020 on the cessation of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. The article identifies problems that impede the full functioning of the «3+3» platform (geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West, contradictions between Iran and Azerbaijan and Georgia’s self-exclusion from this platform). The authors also study implementation of the «Crossroads of Peace» project which helps assess the potential of Armenia as a country aspiring to create a regional transport hub at the intersection of the international corridors «East-West» and «North-South». It is established that, despite the apparent closeness to the goals of the «3+3» platform, the «Crossroads of Peace» project has a different geopolitical agenda. 
文章讨论了 "3+3 "咨询平台运作的问题和前景,该平台旨在疏通南高加索地区的运输交通。作者指出了使地区和地区外参与者的运输和物流利益同步化的可能性和障碍。在执行 2020 年 11 月 10 日关于停止纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫敌对行动的三方协议的背景下,研究了 "3+3 "倡议的目标和目的。文章指出了阻碍 "3+3 "平台充分发挥作用的问题(俄罗斯与西方之间的地缘政治对抗、伊朗与阿塞拜疆之间的矛盾以及格鲁吉亚自行退出该平台)。作者还研究了 "和平十字路口 "项目的实施情况,该项目有助于评估亚美尼亚作为一个希望在 "东西 "和 "南北 "国际走廊交汇处建立地区交通枢纽的国家的潜力。尽管表面上与 "3+3 "平台的目标很接近,但 "和平十字路口 "项目却有着不同的地缘政治议程。
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引用次数: 0
THE ROLE OF THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION IN GLOBAL PRACTICE: EMISSION REDUCTION, UTILIZATION AND STORAGE OF HYDROCARBON 清洁能源转型在全球实践中的作用:碳氢化合物的减排、利用和储存
Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.48137/26870703_2023_24_4_143
T. U. Mammadov, P. U. Mammadzade
The energy sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. In turn, climate change can disrupt energy networks themselves, strain infrastructure and create security risks for people.Producing electricity and heat by burning fossil fuels – coal, oil or gas – produces large amounts of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, which blanket the Earth and trap the sun’s heat.Carbon abatement, utilization, and storage involve reducing carbon dioxide levels, typically at large single-point sources such as power plants or industrial facilities that use fossil fuels or biomass as fuel. If the resulting CO2 is not used on-site, it is compressed and transported by pipeline, ship, rail, or truck for use in a variety of applications, or injected into deep geologic formations such as depleted oil and gas reservoirs and saline aquifers.Hydrocarbon abatement, utilization and storage can be retrofitted into existing power plants and industrial plants, allowing them to operate continuously. Companies, through restructuring, can address hydrocarbon emissions in sectors that are difficult to reduce capacity, especially in sectors such as cement, steel or chemicals. Reducing emissions, utilization and storage of hydrocarbon can balance emissions that are impossible or technically difficult to reduce.
能源行业是向大气排放温室气体的最大来源,加剧了气候变化。通过燃烧化石燃料--煤炭、石油或天然气--来发电和供热,会产生大量的温室气体,如二氧化碳和一氧化二氮,这些气体覆盖了地球并截留了太阳的热量。碳减排、碳利用和碳储存涉及降低二氧化碳含量,通常是在大型单点来源,如发电厂或使用化石燃料或生物质作为燃料的工业设施。如果产生的二氧化碳不在现场使用,则通过管道、船舶、铁路或卡车进行压缩和运输,以用于各种用途,或注入深层地质构造,如枯竭的油气藏和含盐地下蓄水层。碳氢化合物的减少、利用和储存可以改造现有的发电厂和工业厂房,使其能够持续运行。企业可以通过结构调整,解决难以降低产能的部门的碳氢化合物排放问题,尤其是水泥、钢铁或化工等部门。减少碳氢化合物的排放、利用和储存可以平衡不可能减少或在技术上难以减少的排放。
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引用次数: 0
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Geoeconomics of Energetics
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