暴力极端分子会治理国家吗?

Morten Bøås
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摘要

这似乎是一个幼稚的问题,因为基地组织和 "伊斯兰国 "这些受极端主义萨拉菲伊斯兰神学启发的组织通常被描述为冷酷无情、暴力残暴、只通过恐惧和胁迫进行统治的行为体。然而,随着时间的推移和更多分析的出现,一幅更加细致入微的图景出现了。这些发现需要认真对待,因为虽然基地组织和伊斯兰国在中东的势力和吸引力可能正在减弱,但在其他地方,受其启发的组织却日益强大。萨赫勒地区就是一个例子,受基地组织启发的 "支持伊斯兰和穆斯林组织"(JNIM)和 "大撒哈拉地区伊斯兰国"(ISGS)等组织对国际秩序构成的挑战不容低估。他们已在马里和布基纳法索站稳脚跟,并开始威胁拥有全球贸易重要港口的西大西洋国家,如贝宁、加纳和多哥。因此,最重要的是我们要了解这些组织是什么。虽然这些组织的领导人可能坚持对宗教的暴力极端主义解释,并使用武力和暴力,但他们也很聪明、智慧,知道如何规划和制定战略,并制定了娴熟的战术来对付受其影响的平民。
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Do violent extremists govern?
This may seem like a naïve question as groups inspired by the extremist versions of Salafi Islamic theology of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are most often presented as ruthless, violently brutal actors that only rule through fear and coercion. However, as time has moved on and more analyses have come to the fore, a more nuanced picture has emerged. These findings need to be taken seriously because while al-Qaeda and the Islamic State’s power and appeal may be waning in the Middle East, elsewhere, groups inspired by them have grown stronger. One case is the Sahel, and the challenge that groups like the al-Qaeda-inspired Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) represent to international order should not be underestimated. They have gained ground in Mali and Burkina Faso and are also starting to threaten West Atlantic states with important harbours for global trade, such as Benin, Ghana and Togo. It is, therefore, of the utmost importance that we understand what these groups are. While their leaders may adhere to violent extremist interpretations of religion and use force and violence, they are also smart, wise, and know how to plan and strategise, and have developed skilful tactics for dealing with civilian populations that come under their influence.
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