Modeling land use change of mid-sized cities in the process of metropolization. Case study La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Chile

The current urbanization trend shows a large number of conurbated medium-sized cities growing and others that could be transformed into metropolises, especially in Latin America. This has led to disparities in the provision of urban services and amenities, as well as new territorial processes and spatial fragmentation. The objective of this study is to analyze the future changes in land use and land cover in the La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Coquimbo Region, Chile, under two different scenarios: Business-as-usual and Spatial Planning between 2020 and 2042. These different scenarios were simulated using the CLUMondo model based on the evolution of land use/cover between 1990-2020 in order to identify the main dynamics associated with urban growth in both cities. The simulation scenarios reflect how the urban area of the conurbation will expand towards the peri-urban area. In the first scenario, urban land shows an increase of 54%, and in the second one, 45% from 2020 to 2042, reinforcing the issues of the metropolization process in the conurbation, such as spatial segregation, infrastructure deficits, loss of ecosystems and natural landscapes, and fragmentation of rural areas. Spatially explicit models have proven to be a powerful tool for decision-makers tasked with projecting urban growth, particularly in conurbated cities undergoing metropolization.