{"title":"大都市化进程中中等城市土地利用变化的建模。智利拉塞雷纳-科金博城市群案例研究","authors":"Diana Mustelier, Cristian Henríquez","doi":"10.24057/2071-9388-2024-2984","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The current urbanization trend shows a large number of conurbated medium-sized cities growing and others that could be transformed into metropolises, especially in Latin America. This has led to disparities in the provision of urban services and amenities, as well as new territorial processes and spatial fragmentation. The objective of this study is to analyze the future changes in land use and land cover in the La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Coquimbo Region, Chile, under two different scenarios: Business-as-usual and Spatial Planning between 2020 and 2042. These different scenarios were simulated using the CLUMondo model based on the evolution of land use/cover between 1990-2020 in order to identify the main dynamics associated with urban growth in both cities. The simulation scenarios reflect how the urban area of the conurbation will expand towards the peri-urban area. In the first scenario, urban land shows an increase of 54%, and in the second one, 45% from 2020 to 2042, reinforcing the issues of the metropolization process in the conurbation, such as spatial segregation, infrastructure deficits, loss of ecosystems and natural landscapes, and fragmentation of rural areas. Spatially explicit models have proven to be a powerful tool for decision-makers tasked with projecting urban growth, particularly in conurbated cities undergoing metropolization.","PeriodicalId":37517,"journal":{"name":"Geography, Environment, Sustainability","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modeling land use change of mid-sized cities in the process of metropolization. Case study La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Chile\",\"authors\":\"Diana Mustelier, Cristian Henríquez\",\"doi\":\"10.24057/2071-9388-2024-2984\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The current urbanization trend shows a large number of conurbated medium-sized cities growing and others that could be transformed into metropolises, especially in Latin America. This has led to disparities in the provision of urban services and amenities, as well as new territorial processes and spatial fragmentation. The objective of this study is to analyze the future changes in land use and land cover in the La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Coquimbo Region, Chile, under two different scenarios: Business-as-usual and Spatial Planning between 2020 and 2042. These different scenarios were simulated using the CLUMondo model based on the evolution of land use/cover between 1990-2020 in order to identify the main dynamics associated with urban growth in both cities. The simulation scenarios reflect how the urban area of the conurbation will expand towards the peri-urban area. In the first scenario, urban land shows an increase of 54%, and in the second one, 45% from 2020 to 2042, reinforcing the issues of the metropolization process in the conurbation, such as spatial segregation, infrastructure deficits, loss of ecosystems and natural landscapes, and fragmentation of rural areas. Spatially explicit models have proven to be a powerful tool for decision-makers tasked with projecting urban growth, particularly in conurbated cities undergoing metropolization.\",\"PeriodicalId\":37517,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geography, Environment, Sustainability\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geography, Environment, Sustainability\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2024-2984\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Agricultural and Biological Sciences\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geography, Environment, Sustainability","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2024-2984","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modeling land use change of mid-sized cities in the process of metropolization. Case study La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Chile
The current urbanization trend shows a large number of conurbated medium-sized cities growing and others that could be transformed into metropolises, especially in Latin America. This has led to disparities in the provision of urban services and amenities, as well as new territorial processes and spatial fragmentation. The objective of this study is to analyze the future changes in land use and land cover in the La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, Coquimbo Region, Chile, under two different scenarios: Business-as-usual and Spatial Planning between 2020 and 2042. These different scenarios were simulated using the CLUMondo model based on the evolution of land use/cover between 1990-2020 in order to identify the main dynamics associated with urban growth in both cities. The simulation scenarios reflect how the urban area of the conurbation will expand towards the peri-urban area. In the first scenario, urban land shows an increase of 54%, and in the second one, 45% from 2020 to 2042, reinforcing the issues of the metropolization process in the conurbation, such as spatial segregation, infrastructure deficits, loss of ecosystems and natural landscapes, and fragmentation of rural areas. Spatially explicit models have proven to be a powerful tool for decision-makers tasked with projecting urban growth, particularly in conurbated cities undergoing metropolization.
期刊介绍:
Journal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” is founded by the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, The Russian Geographical Society and by the Institute of Geography of RAS. It is the official journal of Russian Geographical Society, and a fully open access journal. Journal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” publishes original, innovative, interdisciplinary and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment scientific field. This goal covers a broad spectrum of scientific research areas (physical-, social-, economic-, cultural geography, environmental sciences and sustainable development) and also considers contemporary and widely used research methods, such as geoinformatics, cartography, remote sensing (including from space), geophysics, geochemistry, etc. “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” is the only original English-language journal in the field of geography and environmental sciences published in Russia. It is supposed to be an outlet from the Russian-speaking countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the Russian-speaking countries regarding environmental and Earth sciences, geography and sustainability. The main sections of the journal are the theory of geography and ecology, the theory of sustainable development, use of natural resources, natural resources assessment, global and regional changes of environment and climate, social-economical geography, ecological regional planning, sustainable regional development, applied aspects of geography and ecology, geoinformatics and ecological cartography, ecological problems of oil and gas sector, nature conservations, health and environment, and education for sustainable development. Articles are freely available to both subscribers and the wider public with permitted reuse.