Land suitability of coffee cultivation under climate change influence in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Geography, Environment, Sustainability Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI:10.24057/2071-9388-2024-2969
Marco O. V. Montero, Aurora A. Ariza, Nancy M. Barreno, H. Figueroa-Saavedra, Andrea F. Porras, Yul Aguilar, Wladimir Moya
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Abstract

In this study, the influence of climate change on land suitability for coffee cultivation in the Ecuadorian Amazon (EA) was investigated using five global circulation models (GCMs) in two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585). Eleven physioedaphological factors were selected for the analysis and were combined with the most influential bioclimatic variables to model past, present and future suitable areas in five provinces of the EA. In assessing past suitability areas, key determinants varied based on land suitability levels. High suitability areas were primarily influenced by factors such as texture, organic matter content, soil fertility, soil depth, slope, and aspect, while pH, salinity, toxicity, drainage, and stoniness were more associated with moderate suitability areas. The present high suitability areas were influenced by texture, organic matter content, soil fertility, soil depth, and slope, whereas aspect, pH, salinity, toxicity, drainage, and stoniness were more prominent in modeling moderate areas. The ensemble estimation model projected distinct future scenarios for coffee cultivation; under the worst climate scenario (SSP585), Zamora Chinchipe and Morona Santiago, particularly in the east, face considerable unsuitability. Conversely, the more favorable scenario (SSP126) indicates high suitability across Pastaza, Orellana, and Sucumbios, with limited suitability in border areas adjacent to the Highland region. This study highlights the importance of implementing timely adaptation strategies to improve resilience to climate change impacts in the coffee sector.
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气候变化影响下厄瓜多尔亚马逊地区咖啡种植的土地适宜性
在本研究中,我们利用五个全球环流模型(GCMs),在两种不同的社会经济路径(SSP126 和 SSP585)下,研究了气候变化对厄瓜多尔亚马逊地区(EA)咖啡种植土地适宜性的影响。分析中选择了 11 个物理-地貌因素,并将其与最具影响力的生物气候变量相结合,以模拟厄瓜多尔亚马逊地区五个省份过去、现在和未来的适宜区域。在评估过去的适宜地区时,主要决定因素因土地适宜程度而异。高适宜性地区主要受质地、有机质含量、土壤肥力、土层深度、坡度和地势等因素的影响,而 pH 值、盐度、毒性、排水性和石质则与中等适宜性地区有较大关系。目前的高适宜性地区受纹理、有机质含量、土壤肥力、土层深度和坡度的影响,而在建模中等适宜性地区时,坡度、pH 值、盐度、毒性、排水性和石质更为突出。集合估算模型为咖啡种植预测了不同的未来情景;在最恶劣的气候情景(SSP585)下,萨莫拉-钦奇佩(Zamora Chinchipe)和莫罗纳-圣地亚哥(Morona Santiago),尤其是东部地区,面临着相当大的不适宜性。相反,在较有利的情景(SSP126)下,帕斯塔萨、奥雷亚纳和苏昆比奥斯地区的适宜性较高,而与高地相邻的边境地区适宜性有限。这项研究强调了及时实施适应战略以提高咖啡行业抵御气候变化影响能力的重要性。
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来源期刊
Geography, Environment, Sustainability
Geography, Environment, Sustainability Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
37
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” is founded by the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, The Russian Geographical Society and by the Institute of Geography of RAS. It is the official journal of Russian Geographical Society, and a fully open access journal. Journal “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” publishes original, innovative, interdisciplinary and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment scientific field. This goal covers a broad spectrum of scientific research areas (physical-, social-, economic-, cultural geography, environmental sciences and sustainable development) and also considers contemporary and widely used research methods, such as geoinformatics, cartography, remote sensing (including from space), geophysics, geochemistry, etc. “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY” is the only original English-language journal in the field of geography and environmental sciences published in Russia. It is supposed to be an outlet from the Russian-speaking countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the Russian-speaking countries regarding environmental and Earth sciences, geography and sustainability. The main sections of the journal are the theory of geography and ecology, the theory of sustainable development, use of natural resources, natural resources assessment, global and regional changes of environment and climate, social-economical geography, ecological regional planning, sustainable regional development, applied aspects of geography and ecology, geoinformatics and ecological cartography, ecological problems of oil and gas sector, nature conservations, health and environment, and education for sustainable development. Articles are freely available to both subscribers and the wider public with permitted reuse.
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