Evaluation of large-scale deforestation susceptibility mapping in the mountainous region of the Himalayas: A case study of the Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve, India

The Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve (KBR) is located in the Eastern Himalayas and serves as a critical habitat for endemic species of flora and fauna, as well as playing a key role in carbon sequestration. The primary aim of this study was to map large-scale deforestation susceptibility zones in the mountainous region of KBR. The study area was divided into three zones: (a) Transition Zone, (b) Core Zone, and (c) Buffer Zone. This study utilized multiple remote sensing datasets acquired through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, including precipitation, temperature, elevation, forest density, distance from rivers, NDVI, NDSI, distance from settlements, settlement density, distance from roads, and land use and land cover data. Additionally, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) methods were employed to map deforestation susceptibility. To validate the proposed deforestation susceptibility, Hansen Global Forest Change (HGFC) data from 2001 to 2022 were used. Moreover, deforestation susceptibility was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) metrics. Notably, our findings revealed significant declines in tree cover of 1.60%, 1.27%, and 0.89% in the Transition, Core, and Buffer Zones, respectively, during critical years (2009, 2011, 2019, 2020). These periods witnessed substantial deforestation, indicating a deteriorating condition of the reserve's forest cover. Although there were minor discrepancies in the results of the two methods, both highlighted the particular vulnerability of the transition zones in the eastern and southern regions of KBR. The comprehensive methodology employed in this research establishes an advanced spatial data infrastructure that is indispensable for immediate conservation planning and adaptive management strategies. The insights gleaned from this investigation hold substantial promise for guiding future restoration and conservation efforts aimed at enriching biodiversity and fortifying ecosystem services in this critical area.