Håvard HegrePeace Research Institute OsloDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Paola VescoPeace Research Institute OsloDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Michael ColaresiDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala UniversityUniversity of Pittsburgh, Jonas VestbyPeace Research Institute Oslo, Alexa TimlickPeace Research Institute Oslo, Noorain Syed KazmiPeace Research Institute Oslo, Friederike BeckerInstitute of Statistics, Marco BinettiCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Tobias BodentienInstitute of Statistics, Tobias BohneCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Patrick T. BrandtSchool of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas, Dallas, Thomas ChadefauxTrinity College Dublin, Simon DrauzInstitute of Statistics, Christoph DworschakUniversity of York, Vito D'OrazioWest Virginia University, Cornelius FritzPennsylvania State University, Hannah FrankTrinity College Dublin, Kristian Skrede GleditschUniversity of EssexPeace Research Institute Oslo, Sonja HäffnerCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Martin HoferUniversity College London, Finn L. KlebeUniversity College London, Luca MacisDepartment of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, Alexandra MalagaInstitute for Economic Analysis, Barcelona, Marius MehrlUniversity of Leeds, Nils W. MetternichUniversity College London, Daniel MittermaierCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, David MuchlinskiGeorgia Tech, Hannes MuellerInstitute for Economic Analysis, BarcelonaBarcelona School of Economics, Christian OswaldCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Paola PisanoDepartment of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, David RandahlDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Christopher RauhUniversity of Cambridge, Lotta RüterInstitute of Statistics, Thomas SchincariolTrinity College Dublin, Benjamin SeimonFundació Economia Analitica, Elena SilettiDepartment of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, Marco TagliapietraDepartment of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, Chandler ThornhillGeorgia Tech, Johan VegeliusDepartment of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Julian WalterskirchenCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich
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BrandtSchool of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences, University of Texas, Dallas, Thomas ChadefauxTrinity College Dublin, Simon DrauzInstitute of Statistics, Christoph DworschakUniversity of York, Vito D'OrazioWest Virginia University, Cornelius FritzPennsylvania State University, Hannah FrankTrinity College Dublin, Kristian Skrede GleditschUniversity of EssexPeace Research Institute Oslo, Sonja HäffnerCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Martin HoferUniversity College London, Finn L. KlebeUniversity College London, Luca MacisDepartment of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, Alexandra MalagaInstitute for Economic Analysis, Barcelona, Marius MehrlUniversity of Leeds, Nils W. MetternichUniversity College London, Daniel MittermaierCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, David MuchlinskiGeorgia Tech, Hannes MuellerInstitute for Economic Analysis, BarcelonaBarcelona School of Economics, Christian OswaldCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Paola PisanoDepartment of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, David RandahlDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Christopher RauhUniversity of Cambridge, Lotta RüterInstitute of Statistics, Thomas SchincariolTrinity College Dublin, Benjamin SeimonFundació Economia Analitica, Elena SilettiDepartment of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, Marco TagliapietraDepartment of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, Chandler ThornhillGeorgia Tech, Johan VegeliusDepartment of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Julian WalterskirchenCenter for Crisis Early Warning, University of the Bundeswehr Munich","doi":"arxiv-2407.11045","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to\nforecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP\n`best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. 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The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to
forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP
`best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. It presents the
format of the contributions, the evaluation metric, and the procedures, and a
brief summary of the contributions. The article serves a function analogous to
a pre-analysis plan: a statement of the forecasting models made publicly
available before the true future prediction window commences. More information
on the challenge, and all data referred to in this document, can be found at
https://viewsforecasting.org/research/prediction-challenge-2023.
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