Coastal connectivity of marine predators over the Patagonian Shelf during the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak

Animal movement and population connectivity are key areas of uncertainty in efforts to understand and predict the spread of infectious disease. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in South America poses a significant threat to globally significant populations of colonial breeding marine predators in the South Atlantic. Yet, there is a poor understanding of which species or migratory pathways may facilitate disease spread. Compiling one of the largest available animal tracking datasets in the South Atlantic, we examine connectivity and inter-population mixing for colonial breeding marine predators tagged at the Falkland Islands. We reveal extensive connectivity for three regionally dominant and gregarious species over the Patagonian Shelf. Black-browed albatrosses (BBA), South American fur seals (SAFS) and Magellanic penguins (MAG) used coastal waters along the Atlantic coast of South America (Argentina and Uruguay). These behaviours were recorded at or in close proximity to breeding colonies and haul-out areas with dense aggregations of marine predators. Transit times to and from the Falkland Islands to the continental coast ranged from 0.2–70 days, with 84% of animals making this transit within 4 days - a conservative estimate for HPAI infectious period. Our findings demonstrate BBA, SAFS and MAG connectivity between the Falkland Islands and mainland South America over an expansive spatial network and numerous pathways, which has implications for infectious disease persistence, transmission and spread. This information is vital in supporting HPAI disease surveillance, risk assessment and marine management efforts across the region.