Modeling impact of inflation reduction act price negotiations on new drug pipeline considering differential contributions of large and small biopharmaceutical companies.

Background/aims: Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act mandating drug price negotiation by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services have been criticized as a threat to pharmaceutical innovation. This study models potential impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act on drug approvals based on the differential contributions of large pharmaceutical companies and smaller biotechnology firms to clinical trials and the availability of capital.

Methods: This study examined research and development expense, revenue, and new investment (sale of common and preferred stock) by public biopharmaceutical companies and sponsorship of phased clinical trials in ClinicalTrials.gov. Financial data were incorporated in a model that estimates the number of drugs in each phase and approvals from reported phase-specific costs and transition rates, proportional sponsorship of trials by companies of different size, projected reductions in research and development spending based on company size, and three scenarios by which large companies may allocate reductions in research and development spending among clinical phases: (1) research and development proportionally reduced across phases; (2) research and development disproportionally reduced in phases 2-3; and (3) research and development disproportionately reduced in phases 1-2.

Results: Financial data were examined for 1378 public biopharmaceutical companies (2000-2018). Research and development expense was associated with revenue for 79 large companies with market capitalization ≥$7 billion with a 10% reduction in revenue reducing research and development expense by 8.4%. For 1299 smaller companies with market capitalization <$7 billion, research and development was associated with new investment, but not revenue. Smaller companies sponsored 55.2% of phase 1, 55.6% of phase 2, and 49.8% of phase 3 trials in ClinicalTrials.gov 2013-2018. In a model of clinical development that apportions clinical trials between large and smaller companies and determines the number of trials based on research and development resources, 400 drugs entering development produced 47.3 approvals (11.83% rate). A 10% reduction in revenue, reflecting the upper boundary of observed changes 2000-2018, with (1) proportional reduction across phases 1-3 produced 45.1 approvals (4.61% reduction); (2) disproportional reduction of phases 2-3 produced 42.8 approvals (9.55% reduction); and (3) disproportional reduction of phases 1-2 produced 46.9 approvals (0.95% reduction).

Conclusion: This work suggests that the drug price negotiation provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act could have little or no impact on the number of drug approvals. While large pharmaceutical companies may reduce research and development spending, continued research and development by smaller companies and strategic allocation of research and development resources by large companies may mitigate any negative effects of the Inflation Reduction Act.