基于巴菲特理论的股票基本价值选股策略研究

Liuyi Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了巴菲特的股票价值投资理论在中国 A 股市场的适用性和有效性,意义重大。通过运用股息率、资产负债率、净资产收益率、净利润增长率和 200 日移动平均线(MA200)这五个关键指标,本文试图调整这些指标的数值,从而构建一个模型。该模型在中国 A 股市场进行了检验,以验证其普遍性和有效性。最终,作者得出结论,股票价值投资理论在中国市场是实用的,尽管其数值与西方传统文献中推荐的数值有很大不同。具体而言,在特定参数范围内的净资产收益率(ROE)能获得较好的回报,比巴菲特提到的数值低四分之一;预测的下一年度净利润增长率在一定范围内与超额回报略呈负相关;最新资产负债率和股息率在特定范围内与超额回报呈正相关。
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Research on Stock Selection Strategies Based on the Basic Value of Stocks Based on Buffett's Theory
The paper presented is highly significant as it explores the applicability and effectiveness of Warren Buffett's stock value investing theory in China's A-share market. By employing five key indicatorsdividend yield, debt-to-asset ratio, ROE, net profit growth rate, and the 200-day moving average (MA200), the paper attempts to adjust the values of these indicators to construct a model. This model is tested on the Chinese A-share market to verify its universality and effectiveness. Ultimately, the author concludes that the stock value investing theory is practical in the Chinese market, although the numerical values differ significantly from those recommended in traditional Western literature. Specifically, the return on equity (ROE) within a specific parameter range yields better returns, which are a quarter lower than the values mentioned by Buffett; the forecasted net profit growth rate for the coming year shows a slight negative correlation with excess returns within a certain range; and the latest balance sheet debt-to-asset ratio and dividend yield are positively correlated with excess returns within a specific range.
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