关键造林树种冲天香柏的空间分布模式:气候变化情景下集合模型的启示

Forests Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI:10.3390/f15081280
Jingtian Yang, Yi Huang, Miaomiao Su, Mei Liu, Jingxuan Yang, Qinggui Wu
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摘要

冲天香柏(Cupressus funebris Endl.(C.funebris)是中国特有的常绿乔木,被列为国家二级濒危植物。该树种在土壤和湿度保持、气候调节和生态恢复方面发挥着重要作用。它在造林生产中也很重要,对维持中国西南地区生态系统的稳定至关重要。本研究采用综合建模方法,整合了 10 个物种分布模型,模拟了箭竹的潜在分布,并预测了未来气候变化对箭竹分布和生态位的影响。通过实地调查,比较了不同栖息地适宜度水平下的箭毒林分。结果表明,箭毒林的最适宜区主要分布在四川、重庆和贵州,面积约为 15.651 × 104 km2。虽然林下植物多样性并没有显示出竞争优势,但在这些高适宜区,C. funebris林分的生产力明显高于低适宜区和中等适宜区。在未来的气候情景下,随着气温的升高,木犀属植物在中国的潜在分布范围将扩大,其生态位的地理范围也将向中国北部的高纬度地区转移。随着气温升高,该生态位的地理范围的变化程度也会加剧。具体而言,在2090年代-SSP585气候情景下,C. funebris的高度适宜区预计将增加一倍,这表明在该气候模式下,该生态位的地理范围将显著扩大,一半以上的生态位将经历分离。总之,在全球变暖的背景下,C. funebris 的潜在分布范围可能会继续扩大并向高纬度地区转移,其生态位的地理范围也会相应调整。这些发现为C. funebris基因资源的就地保护、异地保护以及通过开展生态位建模和气候适宜性评估合理利用C. funebris基因资源提供了理论依据和实践指导。
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Spatial Distribution Patterns of the Key Afforestation Species Cupressus funebris: Insights from an Ensemble Model under Climate Change Scenarios
Cupressus funebris Endl. (C. funebris) is an evergreen tree endemic to China that is classified as a national second-class endangered plant. This species plays critical roles in soil and humidity conservation, climate regulation, and ecological restoration. It is also important in silvicultural production, which is crucial for maintaining the stability of the ecosystem in Southwest China. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to integrate 10 species distribution models to simulate the potential distribution of C. funebris and predict the impact of future climate change on its distribution and ecological niche. Field surveys were conducted to compare the forest stands of C. funebris under different habitat suitability levels. The results showed that the most suitable areas for C. funebris were mainly located in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou, covering an area of approximately 15.651 × 104 km2. The productivity of the C. funebris forest stands in these highly suitable areas and was significantly higher than that in low and moderately suitable areas, although understory plant diversity did not show a competitive advantage. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution of C. funebris in China will expand and the geographical range of the niche will shift to higher latitudes in northern China as temperatures increase. The extent of this change in the niche’s geographical range intensified as warming increased. Specifically, under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the highly suitable area for C. funebris is projected to double, suggesting a significant expansion of the geographical range of the niche under this climate model, with more than half of the niche experiencing separation. In summary, the potential distribution of C. funebris may continue to expand and shift to higher latitudes in the context of global warming and its ecological niche’s geographical range will be adjusted accordingly. These findings provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for in situ conservation, ex situ conservation, and rational utilization of C. funebris genetic resources by conducting niche modeling and climate suitability assessments.
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