Net evaporation-induced mangrove area loss across low-lying Caribbean islands

Although mangroves provide many beneficial ecosystem services, such as blue carbon storage and coastal protection, they are currently under threat due to changes in climate conditions, such as prolonged drought exposure. Under drought conditions, evaporation exceeds precipitation increasing porewater salinity causing mangroves stunted growth and die-back. To quantify this interplay, we developed a database for low-lying and uninhabited mangrove islands in the Caribbean under various evaporation and precipitation regimes. We extracted physical and biological information from each island using remote sensing techniques and coupled it with a process-based model. We used this database to develop a model that explains both the spatial variability in vegetated area across the Caribbean – as a function of rates of evaporation and precipitation – and porewater salinity concentration and dispersion from island edge towards the interior of mangrove islands. We then used this validated model to predict mangrove area loss associated with increases in evaporation to precipitation rates by 2100 for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Less wealthy Caribbean regions such as Belize, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela are disproportionally affected, with mangrove area losses ranging from 3-7% for SSP 2.6 and 13-21% for SSP 7.0. Furthermore, foregone carbon sequestration in lost biomass under SSP 4.5 and 7.0 scenarios could compromise the ability of low-lying Caribbean mangrove islands to vertically adjust to sea level rise.