Predicting forest fire probability in Similipal Biosphere Reserve (India) using Sentinel-2 MSI data and machine learning

The global escalation in forest fires, characterized by increasing frequency and severity, results from a complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors, exacerbated by climate change. These fires devastate habitats, threaten species, reduce biodiversity, disrupt natural cycles, and harm local ecosystems. The impacts are particularly damaging in biological reserves. The Similipal Biosphere Reserve (SBR) in Odisha State is one of India’s major forest fire hotspots, experiencing forest fires almost every year. The objective of this study is to develop a predictive model using Sentinel-2 MSI data and machine learning (ML) techniques to estimate the probability of forest fires in the SBR, India, thereby enhancing disaster management and prevention in the region. This research maps and quantifies forest fire intensity by leveraging ML algorithms, namely Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF). To develop a Forest Fire Probability (FFP) map, twenty conditioning factors, along with pre- and post-fire Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and delta Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), were utilized. Furthermore, four statistical methods—Mean Absolute Error, Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error, and Overall Accuracy—were employed to analyze the FFP. The results were validated using the Area Under Curve (AUC) method. The analysis identifies 2021 as the year with the highest incidence of forest fires, accounting for 29.19% of the occurrences. Among the models, the GBM exhibits superior performance, highlighting its efficacy in handling large, multidimensional datasets. Predictive mapping suggests that approximately 1400–1500 km², or 25–30% of the studied area, faces a high to very high risk of forest fires.