Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of Urban–Agricultural–Ecological space in ecologically fragile areas: A case study of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Ecologically fragile areas, which are vulnerable to human disturbances, are facing development dilemmas due to the contradiction between economic development and environmental degradation. Examining the driving mechanism and future trends of land use transitions can inform territorial planning and land use policies to address the contradiction. However, research into the mechanisms governing the interaction between ecological and social factors driving land use transitions in ecologically fragile areas is currently limited. Considering the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (URYREB), a typical ecologically fragile area in China, as an example, this study discussed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of Urban-Agricultural-Ecological Space. The results indicated that ecological factors influence the direction, location, and scale of spatial evolution, while social factors dominate the direction and scale of spatial evolution. The interaction between ecological and social elements drives spatial evolution due to the endogenous development needs of the social-ecological system (SES), in conjunction with external policy guidance and economic development. In the future, urban function space may continue to expand and threaten surrounding agricultural function space, thus, corresponding land use policies are necessary to ensure food security. This study unveils the impact of multifactor interactions on land use transitions and offers insights for optimizing territorial space planning in ecologically fragile areas.