基于 PLUS-InVEST 模型的博斯腾湖流域产水量和节水的时空变化与预测

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Journal of Arid Land Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI:10.1007/s40333-024-0101-4
Jiazhen Chen, Alimujiang Kasimu, Rukeya Reheman, Bohao Wei, Fuqiang Han, Yan Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为全面评估干旱流域内水生态系统服务功能的变化,本研究重点关注位于中国西北干旱地区的博斯腾湖流域。研究基于土地利用/土地覆被 (LULC)、自然、社会经济和可达性数据,利用斑块级土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 和生态系统服务与权衡综合评价 (InVEST) 模型,动态评估 LULC 变化以及相关的产水量和节水量变化。分析包括评估各种土地利用类型的贡献指数以及调查影响产水量和节水的驱动因素。结果表明,2000-2020 年博斯腾湖流域土地利用类型变化呈现出耕地和建设用地增加,草地、森林和未利用地减少的趋势。2030 年三种预测情景(S1,自然发展情景;S2,生态保护情景;S3,耕地保护情景)的未利用地均呈减少趋势。在 S1 和 S3 情景中,草地呈减少趋势,耕地呈增加趋势;而在 S2 情景中,耕地呈减少趋势,草地呈增加趋势。博斯腾湖流域的产水量从 2000 年到 2020 年呈现先降后升的趋势。产水量较高的地区主要位于海拔较高的盆地北部。节水表现出先下降后稳定的模式,东北部地区的节水值较高。在 2030 年土地利用、土地利用变化情景预测中,S1 和 S3 情景下的估计产水量略高于 S2 情景下的估计产水量,而三种情景下的节水水平保持一致。研究结果表明,和静县是重要的水源涵养功能区,其中小油勒都斯流域东部尤为重要,应予以保护。本研究的结果为推进干旱流域的可持续发展和促进水资源的有效管理提供了科学依据。
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Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield and water conservation in the Bosten Lake Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model

To comprehensively evaluate the alterations in water ecosystem service functions within arid watersheds, this study focused on the Bosten Lake Basin, which is situated in the arid region of Northwest China. The research was based on land use/land cover (LULC), natural, socioeconomic, and accessibility data, utilizing the Patch-level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models to dynamically assess LULC change and associated variations in water yield and water conservation. The analyses included the evaluation of contribution indices of various land use types and the investigation of driving factors that influence water yield and water conservation. The results showed that the change of LULC in the Bosten Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing in cultivated land and construction land, and decreasing in grassland, forest, and unused land. The unused land of all the three predicted scenarios of 2030 (S1, a natural development scenario; S2, an ecological protection scenario; and S3, a cultivated land protection scenario) showed a decreasing trend. The scenarios S1 and S3 showed a trend of decreasing in grassland and increasing in cultivated land; while the scenario S2 showed a trend of decreasing in cultivated land and increasing in grassland. The water yield of the Bosten Lake Basin exhibited an initial decline followed by a slight increase from 2000 to 2020. The areas with higher water yield values were primarily located in the northern section of the basin, which is characterized by higher altitude. Water conservation demonstrated a pattern of initial decrease followed by stabilization, with the northeastern region demonstrating higher water conservation values. In the projected LULC scenarios of 2030, the estimated water yield under scenarios S1 and S3 was marginally greater than that under scenario S2; while the level of water conservation across all three scenarios remained rather consistent. The results showed that Hejing County is an important water conservation function zone, and the eastern part of the Xiaoyouledusi Basin is particularly important and should be protected. The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for advancing sustainable development in arid watersheds and facilitating efficient water resource management.

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来源期刊
Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
6.70%
发文量
768
审稿时长
3.2 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Arid Land is an international peer-reviewed journal co-sponsored by Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press. It aims to meet the needs of researchers, students and practitioners in sustainable development and eco-environmental management, focusing on the arid and semi-arid lands in Central Asia and the world at large. The Journal covers such topics as the dynamics of natural resources (including water, soil and land, organism and climate), the security and sustainable development of natural resources, and the environment and the ecology in arid and semi-arid lands, especially in Central Asia. Coverage also includes interactions between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, and the relationship between these natural processes and human activities. Also discussed are patterns of geography, ecology and environment; ecological improvement and environmental protection; and regional responses and feedback mechanisms to global change. The Journal of Arid Land also presents reviews, brief communications, trends and book reviews of work on these topics.
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