Assessment of rehabilitation strategies for lakes affected by anthropogenic and climatic changes: A case study of the Urmia Lake, Iran

Over the last three decades, more than half of the world’s large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage, primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs. The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental, economic, and social repercussions. Urmia Lake, located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem, has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%. Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers. This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating (MODSIM) model. The model simulated changes in the lake’s water volume under various scenarios. These included diverting water from incoming rivers, cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%, releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons, treated wastewater utilization, and inter-basin transfers. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was utilized to analyze the simulation results. Expert opinions with AHP analysis, acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake. Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake. Following this, inter-basin water transfers are suggested, with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds. It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks, advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country. This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought, normal, and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake. According to our projection, implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake’s level and volume, potentially by 3.57×10⁹–9.38×10⁹ m³ over the coming 10 a and 3.57×10⁹–10.70×10⁹ m³ in the subsequent 15 a.