{"title":"利用机器学习技术预测小额信贷机构的财务业绩","authors":"Tang Ting, Md Aslam Mia, Md Imran Hossain, Khaw Khai Wah","doi":"10.1108/jm2-10-2023-0254","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>Given the growing emphasis among scholars, practitioners and policymakers on financial sustainability, this study aims to explore the applicability of machine learning techniques in predicting the financial performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs).</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>This study gathered 9,059 firm-year observations spanning from 2003 to 2018 from the World Bank's Mix Market database. To predict the financial performance of MFIs, the authors applied a range of machine learning regression approaches to both training and testing data sets. These included linear regression, partial least squares, linear regression with stepwise selection, elastic net, random forest, quantile random forest, Bayesian ridge regression, K-Nearest Neighbors and support vector regression. All models were implemented using Python.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>The findings revealed the random forest model as the most suitable choice, outperforming the other models considered. The effectiveness of the random forest model varied depending on specific scenarios, particularly the balance between training and testing data set proportions. More importantly, the results identified operational self-sufficiency as the most critical factor influencing the financial performance of MFIs.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\n<p>This study leveraged machine learning on a well-defined data set to identify the factors predicting the financial performance of MFIs. These insights offer valuable guidance for MFIs aiming to predict their long-term financial sustainability. Investors and donors can also use these findings to make informed decisions when selecting their potential recipients. Furthermore, practitioners and policymakers can use these findings to identify potential financial performance vulnerabilities.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>This study stands out by using a global data set to investigate the best model for predicting the financial performance of MFIs, a relatively scarce subject in the existing microfinance literature. Moreover, it uses advanced machine learning techniques to gain a deeper understanding of the factors affecting the financial performance of MFIs.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":16349,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Modelling in Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting the financial performance of microfinance institutions with machine learning techniques\",\"authors\":\"Tang Ting, Md Aslam Mia, Md Imran Hossain, Khaw Khai Wah\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/jm2-10-2023-0254\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>Given the growing emphasis among scholars, practitioners and policymakers on financial sustainability, this study aims to explore the applicability of machine learning techniques in predicting the financial performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs).</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\\n<p>This study gathered 9,059 firm-year observations spanning from 2003 to 2018 from the World Bank's Mix Market database. To predict the financial performance of MFIs, the authors applied a range of machine learning regression approaches to both training and testing data sets. These included linear regression, partial least squares, linear regression with stepwise selection, elastic net, random forest, quantile random forest, Bayesian ridge regression, K-Nearest Neighbors and support vector regression. All models were implemented using Python.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>The findings revealed the random forest model as the most suitable choice, outperforming the other models considered. The effectiveness of the random forest model varied depending on specific scenarios, particularly the balance between training and testing data set proportions. More importantly, the results identified operational self-sufficiency as the most critical factor influencing the financial performance of MFIs.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\\n<p>This study leveraged machine learning on a well-defined data set to identify the factors predicting the financial performance of MFIs. These insights offer valuable guidance for MFIs aiming to predict their long-term financial sustainability. Investors and donors can also use these findings to make informed decisions when selecting their potential recipients. Furthermore, practitioners and policymakers can use these findings to identify potential financial performance vulnerabilities.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\\n<p>This study stands out by using a global data set to investigate the best model for predicting the financial performance of MFIs, a relatively scarce subject in the existing microfinance literature. Moreover, it uses advanced machine learning techniques to gain a deeper understanding of the factors affecting the financial performance of MFIs.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\",\"PeriodicalId\":16349,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Modelling in Management\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Modelling in Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-10-2023-0254\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Modelling in Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-10-2023-0254","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting the financial performance of microfinance institutions with machine learning techniques
Purpose
Given the growing emphasis among scholars, practitioners and policymakers on financial sustainability, this study aims to explore the applicability of machine learning techniques in predicting the financial performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs).
Design/methodology/approach
This study gathered 9,059 firm-year observations spanning from 2003 to 2018 from the World Bank's Mix Market database. To predict the financial performance of MFIs, the authors applied a range of machine learning regression approaches to both training and testing data sets. These included linear regression, partial least squares, linear regression with stepwise selection, elastic net, random forest, quantile random forest, Bayesian ridge regression, K-Nearest Neighbors and support vector regression. All models were implemented using Python.
Findings
The findings revealed the random forest model as the most suitable choice, outperforming the other models considered. The effectiveness of the random forest model varied depending on specific scenarios, particularly the balance between training and testing data set proportions. More importantly, the results identified operational self-sufficiency as the most critical factor influencing the financial performance of MFIs.
Research limitations/implications
This study leveraged machine learning on a well-defined data set to identify the factors predicting the financial performance of MFIs. These insights offer valuable guidance for MFIs aiming to predict their long-term financial sustainability. Investors and donors can also use these findings to make informed decisions when selecting their potential recipients. Furthermore, practitioners and policymakers can use these findings to identify potential financial performance vulnerabilities.
Originality/value
This study stands out by using a global data set to investigate the best model for predicting the financial performance of MFIs, a relatively scarce subject in the existing microfinance literature. Moreover, it uses advanced machine learning techniques to gain a deeper understanding of the factors affecting the financial performance of MFIs.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Modelling in Management (JM2) provides a forum for academics and researchers with a strong interest in business and management modelling. The journal analyses the conceptual antecedents and theoretical underpinnings leading to research modelling processes which derive useful consequences in terms of management science, business and management implementation and applications. JM2 is focused on the utilization of management data, which is amenable to research modelling processes, and welcomes academic papers that not only encompass the whole research process (from conceptualization to managerial implications) but also make explicit the individual links between ''antecedents and modelling'' (how to tackle certain problems) and ''modelling and consequences'' (how to apply the models and draw appropriate conclusions). The journal is particularly interested in innovative methodological and statistical modelling processes and those models that result in clear and justified managerial decisions. JM2 specifically promotes and supports research writing, that engages in an academically rigorous manner, in areas related to research modelling such as: A priori theorizing conceptual models, Artificial intelligence, machine learning, Association rule mining, clustering, feature selection, Business analytics: Descriptive, Predictive, and Prescriptive Analytics, Causal analytics: structural equation modeling, partial least squares modeling, Computable general equilibrium models, Computer-based models, Data mining, data analytics with big data, Decision support systems and business intelligence, Econometric models, Fuzzy logic modeling, Generalized linear models, Multi-attribute decision-making models, Non-linear models, Optimization, Simulation models, Statistical decision models, Statistical inference making and probabilistic modeling, Text mining, web mining, and visual analytics, Uncertainty-based reasoning models.