欧元区的工资和通货膨胀

IF 0.8 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Cesifo Economic Studies Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI:10.1093/cesifo/ifae014

Nektarios A Michail, Kyriaki G Louca

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了欧元区四种主要通胀成分（服务业、NEIG、能源和食品）与工资之间的关系。利用 2002 年第一季度至 2021 年第四季度的面板向量自回归模型，我们发现工资对服务业通胀、能源通胀和 GDP 增长的冲击做出了积极反应，其中第一个冲击最大。此外，服务业通胀受到所有其他通胀类别的影响。结果与 2022 年以来食品和能源价格飙升后的通胀路径一致。对政策的影响包括工资和服务通胀之间的反馈循环至少持续一年，通胀预期可能产生强化效应。与美国的证据相似，我们还发现，在菲利普斯曲线设置中，失业率并不影响工资的发展。(JEL 代码：J30、E24、E31）

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Wages and Inflation in the Euro Area

We investigate the relationship between the four main inflation components (services, NEIG, energy, and food) and wages in the euro area. Using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model for the 2002q1–2021q4 period, we find that wages positively respond to shocks in services inflation, energy inflation and GDP growth, with the first being the largest. In addition, services inflation is affected by all other inflation categories. The results are in line with the inflation path since 2022, following the food and energy price surges. Implications for policy include a feedback loop between wages and services inflation that lasts at least a year, with a possible reinforcement effect stemming from inflation expectations. Similar to US evidence, we also find that the unemployment rate does not affect wage developments in a Phillips curve setup. (JEL codes: J30, E24, E31)

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来源期刊

Cesifo Economic Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： CESifo Economic Studies publishes provocative, high-quality papers in economics, with a particular focus on policy issues. Papers by leading academics are written for a wide and global audience, including those in government, business, and academia. The journal combines theory and empirical research in a style accessible to economists across all specialisations.

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