Ahmed M. Gemeay, Yusra A. Tashkandy, M. E. Bakr, Anoop Kumar, Md. Moyazzem Hossain, Ehab M. Almetwally
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引用次数: 0
摘要
本文讨论了具有三个参数的鸥α幂Weibull分布。对 Gull Alpha Power Weibull 分布参数的不同统计推断方法进行了获取、估计和评估。然后,对结果进行比较,以找到合适的模型。对已发布的 Gull Alpha Power Weibull 分布的未知参数进行了分析。七种估计方法包括最大似然法、安德森-达林法、右尾安德森-达林法、克拉梅尔-冯-米塞斯法、普通最小二乘法、加权最小二乘法和最大间距积法。此外,还使用蒙特卡洛方法计算了该分布的性能,并分析了拟议分布参数估计的有限样本特征。鉴于重尾分布的重要性,我们采用了精算方法。将风险值和风险尾值等精算标准应用于所建议的分布,结果表明所研究的模型比 Weibull 分布具有更大的尾部。两个真实的 COVID-19 感染数据集被用来评估该分布。我们分析了对数概率根的存在性和唯一性,以确定它们代表了全局最大值。最后,我们总结了本研究的成果。
Fitting COVID-19 datasets to a new statistical model
This paper discussed gull alpha power Weibull distribution with a three-parameter. Different statistical inference methods of Gull Alpha Power Weibull distribution parameters have been obtained, estimated, and evaluated. Then, the results are compared to find a suitable model. The unknown parameters of the published Gull Alpha Power Weibull distribution are analyzed. Seven estimation methods are maximum likelihood, Anderson–Darling, right-tail Anderson–Darling, Cramér–von Mises, ordinary least-squares, weighted least-squares, and maximum product of spacing. In addition, the performance of this distribution is computed using the Monte Carlo method, and the limited sample features of parameter estimates for the proposed distribution are analyzed. In light of the importance of heavy-tailed distributions, actuarial approaches are employed. Applying actuarial criteria such as value at risk and tail value at risk to the suggested distribution shows that the model under study has a larger tail than the Weibull distribution. Two real-world COVID-19 infection datasets are used to evaluate the distribution. We analyze the existence and uniqueness of the log-probability roots to establish that they represent the global maximum. We conclude by summarizing the outcomes reported in this study.
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