评估从调查数据中估算出的二元结果分类器。

IF 4.7 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Epidemiology Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-14 DOI:10.1097/EDE.0000000000001776
Adway S Wadekar, Jerome P Reiter
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引用次数: 0

摘要

调查通常用于促进流行病学、健康以及社会和行为科学领域的研究。这些调查通常不是简单的随机抽样,受访者被赋予的权重反映了他们被选入调查的概率。我们的研究表明,在将数据分成训练集和测试集时,使用调查权重有利于评估预测模型的质量。特别是,我们将灵敏度和特异性等模型评估统计量描述为有限群体量,并利用由原始数据随机子集组成的测试数据计算这些量的调查加权估计值。通过对全国药物使用与健康调查和全国发病率调查的数据进行模拟,我们表明,使用抽样测试数据估算的非加权指标可能会错误地反映人群的表现,但加权指标可对复杂的抽样设计进行适当调整。我们还表明,这一结论适用于使用上采样减轻类不平衡而训练的模型。结果表明,在评估来自复杂调查的测试数据的性能时,应使用加权指标。
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Evaluating Binary Outcome Classifiers Estimated from Survey Data.

Surveys are commonly used to facilitate research in epidemiology, health, and the social and behavioral sciences. Often, these surveys are not simple random samples, and respondents are given weights reflecting their probability of selection into the survey. We show that using survey weights can be beneficial for evaluating the quality of predictive models when splitting data into training and test sets. In particular, we characterize model assessment statistics, such as sensitivity and specificity, as finite population quantities and compute survey-weighted estimates of these quantities with test data comprising a random subset of the original data. Using simulations with data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and the National Comorbidity Survey, we show that unweighted metrics estimated with sample test data can misrepresent population performance, but weighted metrics appropriately adjust for the complex sampling design. We also show that this conclusion holds for models trained using upsampling for mitigating class imbalance. The results suggest that weighted metrics should be used when evaluating performance on test data derived from complex surveys.

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来源期刊
Epidemiology
Epidemiology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
6.70
自引率
3.70%
发文量
177
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Epidemiology publishes original research from all fields of epidemiology. The journal also welcomes review articles and meta-analyses, novel hypotheses, descriptions and applications of new methods, and discussions of research theory or public health policy. We give special consideration to papers from developing countries.
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