{"title":"温度与生育率：西班牙的证据。","authors":"Risto Conte Keivabu, Marco Cozzani, Joshua Wilde","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2382152","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we combine administrative data for Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data, to identify the effect of daily mean temperature on fertility. We demonstrate for Spain that hot days (≥25°C) decrease the total fertility rate nine months after exposure. Moreover, we do not observe any substantial heterogeneities in the effect of heat by mother's age, mother's educational attainment, sex of the newborn, climatic area, or air conditioning penetration. Our results suggest that climate change may be altering the seasonal distribution of births and affect fertility rates in a context with low fertility and rapid population ageing.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Temperature and fertility: Evidence from Spain.\",\"authors\":\"Risto Conte Keivabu, Marco Cozzani, Joshua Wilde\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/00324728.2024.2382152\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>In this paper, we combine administrative data for Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data, to identify the effect of daily mean temperature on fertility. We demonstrate for Spain that hot days (≥25°C) decrease the total fertility rate nine months after exposure. Moreover, we do not observe any substantial heterogeneities in the effect of heat by mother's age, mother's educational attainment, sex of the newborn, climatic area, or air conditioning penetration. Our results suggest that climate change may be altering the seasonal distribution of births and affect fertility rates in a context with low fertility and rapid population ageing.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47814,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"1-15\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2382152\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"DEMOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2382152","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we combine administrative data for Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data, to identify the effect of daily mean temperature on fertility. We demonstrate for Spain that hot days (≥25°C) decrease the total fertility rate nine months after exposure. Moreover, we do not observe any substantial heterogeneities in the effect of heat by mother's age, mother's educational attainment, sex of the newborn, climatic area, or air conditioning penetration. Our results suggest that climate change may be altering the seasonal distribution of births and affect fertility rates in a context with low fertility and rapid population ageing.
期刊介绍：
For over half a century, Population Studies has reported significant advances in methods of demographic analysis, conceptual and mathematical theories of demographic dynamics and behaviour, and the use of these theories and methods to extend scientific knowledge and to inform policy and practice. The Journal"s coverage of this field is comprehensive: applications in developed and developing countries; historical and contemporary studies; quantitative and qualitative studies; analytical essays and reviews. The subjects of papers range from classical concerns, such as the determinants and consequences of population change, to such topics as family demography and evolutionary and genetic influences on demographic behaviour.
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