Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

Internal migration fell in high-income countries such as Australia, the UK, and the United States during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. High-level explanations for these declines have referred to developmental stage (Zelinsky's super-advanced society), changed values and preferences (secular rootedness), and long-run socio-demographic change (second demographic transition). We assess the relevance of these overlapping interpretations in the Norwegian context via a combination of direct empirical tests (using full-population register data for 1981-2015 and Oaxaca-Blinder analysis) and indirect assessments based on the inherent features of the Norwegian case study. The net effect of changes in population composition and behaviours has been to increase migration: the upward effects of a more educated population and changed household structures have outweighed the downward effects of population ageing. Our results raise questions about how far these macro explanations of migration decline are generally applicable. We offer some suggestions for future conceptual and empirical investigation.

While concerns have been raised about declining marriage and fertility rates and increasing union dissolution, less attention has been paid to individuals remaining single. We ask whether individuals with different occupational characteristics experience different chances of remaining single throughout their lives and whether this relationship has changed across birth cohorts for men or women. We focus on Italy, a familistic context where exacerbated work-family conflict may hinder family formation for career-oriented women, while the male breadwinner norm makes occupational outcomes crucial for men's mating market chances. Based on Kaplan-Meier survival curves and logistic regression models using rich retrospective survey data, our analysis suggests that stronger labour market attachment is positively associated with singlehood for women and negatively for men. The work-family trade-off appears to have disappeared for women across the birth cohorts studied, whereas careers have become increasingly relevant for men, suggesting that the male breadwinner model is strongly entrenched in Italy.

Using census and survey microdata from 49 African countries across 415 subnational areas, we offer a comprehensive overview of household size and composition in Africa. The study emphasizes the potential of these data for understanding family dynamics through co-residential units. Clear regional patterns emerge, showcasing a wide range of household sizes across the continent. We find that household size is linked primarily to the number of children and secondarily to the presence of other family and non-family members beyond the nuclear household. The analysis of household composition also highlights the uneven influence of polygyny and extended families. This research is a first step in examining harmonized census and survey data to delve into the structure and dynamics of households across Africa from a demographic perspective.

Strictly Orthodox Jews, otherwise known as Haredi, constitute about one-quarter of the total Jewish population of the UK. This population is growing very quickly. A religion question, first introduced into the census of England and Wales in 2001, is generally used to estimate the Haredi Jewish population. This paper claims that Haredi Jews have been severely and consistently undercounted in the census, leading to detrimental consequences for a proper understanding of the numerical dynamics of the UK's Jewish population as a whole and also compromised service provision. This paper develops an alternative estimation system that uses different types of administrative sources to quantify and correct for the census undercount of Haredi Jews. The paper proceeds to show that the undercount is not an exclusively 'Haredi problem': other ethnic and religious groups are also likely to be affected by it.

This paper presents approximate estimates of the size, growth, and changing demographic characteristics of Australia's lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB+) population. We used weighted data from a longitudinal panel survey at three time points to estimate the population by sex and age group in 2012, 2016, and 2020, and we applied cohort analysis to help understand the drivers of its growth. The LGB+ population aged 15 and above doubled in size over the eight-year period, increasing from 0.58 million in 2012 to 1.18 million in 2020. More men than women identified as LGB+ in 2012, but this had reversed by 2016. Our estimates show that the LGB+ population is young and becoming younger over time, with cohort analysis showing that its growth has been driven primarily by recent cohorts of young women with a bisexual identity. We discuss what might be driving this growth and whether our results suggest continued rapid LGB+ population growth in future.

Widely credited with ending population control and ushering in a new era of reproductive rights, the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Programme of Action also included some important compromises. The commemoration of ICPD+30 presents an opportune moment to reflect critically on those compromises and their implications for family planning programmes in the three decades since. Here, we critically examine how these compromises have enabled population control logics to flourish within global family planning programmes and the ways that neo-Malthusian concerns still motivate contraceptive programming under co-opted feminist rhetoric. We argue that rather than binary stances of 'pro' or 'anti' contraception, the post-ICPD landscape includes multiple contested positions, including: (1) concern for reproductive rights and autonomy; (2) concern over fertility or population dynamics; and (3) opposition to biomedical contraception and abortion. Setting out the intersecting and diverging tenets of these ideologies, we call for more critical reflection on these tangled histories and engagement with reproductive justice during ICPD+30.

This paper explores the shift in family influence on socio-economic outcomes, focusing on sibling relationships, from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries in the Barcelona area. Our findings reveal a diminishing role of vertical ties (parents-children) and an increasing significance of horizontal ties (between siblings). Specifically, brothers who were first in the sibling group to marry exerted more influence on socio-economic persistence over time, aligning with the changes in familial dynamics since proto-industrialization. Gender dynamics highlight the influence of first-married brothers' influence, although first-married sisters were also significantly associated with non-first-married siblings' social mobility. The intensification of horizontal ties is seen as a cooperative model among siblings, challenging the notion of a complete loss of family influence during industrialization. The study contributes nuance to modernization theory by highlighting the enduring importance of kinship in industrial periods, especially among siblings.

This study examines an inconsistency between an attitude and a behaviour: non-use of contraception among people who are not trying to get pregnant. More than one in four people in that situation report not using contraception 'sometimes' or 'always' and consequently face the risk of pregnancy. We test three potential explanations: acceptability of having (further) children; perceived low pregnancy risk; and perceived social pressure. Using 10 waves of the German pairfam panel, we estimate sex-specific between-within models, where each explanation is tested by several indicators. We find evidence for the explanation of a(nother) child being considered acceptable: a positive fertility desire increases contraceptive non-use among women and men, and relationship duration increases it among women. Supporting the explanation of low perceived pregnancy risk, analyses show that perceived infertility, breastfeeding, and age increase the probability of non-use of contraception for women and men. However, there is no strong evidence for perceived social pressure affecting contraceptive non-use.

Rising feminization of migration has resulted in substantial flows of women migrating in Africa, increasing the importance of migration in women's lives. Although child fostering is an enduring feature of family life throughout Africa, few studies have examined the role that maternal migration may play in these arrangements. I use Demographic and Health Survey data from 24 African countries to explore associations between maternal migration experience and fostering out of children aged 0-17, focusing on maternal migrant status, migrant stream, motivation, and timing of migration relative to births of children, to explore potential disruption introduced by migration. Results suggest that maternal migration disrupts mother-child co-residence, with greater fostering among children of migrant mothers, particularly rural-urban migrants. Children born before migration display the highest probability of fostering, consistently across migrant streams. These results suggest a need for greater attention to the impacts of maternal migration for children's living arrangements, particularly as migration flows become increasingly feminized.

Young adults moving between wealthy countries for work and adventure are an under-studied group of international migrants. We use a unique combination of full population register data from Sweden and Norway to explore the so-called 'Party Swedes': young Swedes who emigrated to Norway in 2010-12. We follow them and track their median incomes before they left Sweden, during their stay in Norway, and after their return to Sweden. Moreover, we model selection into migration and return, as well as individual income levels after return. Our results suggest that in economic terms, the 'party penalty' clearly seems larger than the 'party premium'. Even though the young Swedes earned well in Norway, this did not translate into higher incomes after returning to Sweden than among their non-migrating peers. These results add to the literature on migrants' income premiums after return, focusing on liquid youth migration.