Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

As Western populations face projected decline, understanding the demographics of high-fertility subpopulations becomes increasingly important. The Amish represent one rapidly growing North American subgroup, yet existing demographic studies are dated and narrowly focused. Here, we use a new population database of >50,000 households-the vast majority of Amish-to offer an up-to-date population-wide analysis that shows high fertility and low mortality and attrition. Specifically, women's median age at marriage is 20.9, and 87.1 per cent marry by age 50; premarital conceptions are low (4.30 per cent of first births); spacing between marriage and first birth is short (mean 17.2 months); the total fertility rate is 6.1; infant mortality is 5.9; life expectancy at birth is 81.16 years; attrition is low (84.46 per cent retention for those aged 40+); and in-conversion is very low (154 individuals across nearly a century). These definitive population-wide figures open the way for testing predictors of population change and charting how growing subpopulations are shaping regions.

Research on childlessness by educational attainment typically focuses on lifetime childlessness at age 40 or 45, with less known about younger ages. This study examines trends in childlessness by age and education for men and women in Finland from 1987 to 2022, using total population register data. We focus on childlessness at ages 30, 35, 40, and 45. The results show that childlessness has increased at most ages, with acceleration in the past decade. At ages 40 and 45, the association between education and childlessness is negative for men-men with lower education are more often childless-while among women, the association has reversed from positive to negative in recent years. At age 30, childlessness is higher among the highly educated, reflecting later entry into parenthood. At age 35, childlessness has risen across all groups, notably including tertiary-educated men and women. These trends suggest that the increase in lifetime childlessness in Finland is likely to continue and become more widespread.

In the absence of complete civil registration and vital statistics, Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) are important sources of population-based data throughout sub-Saharan Africa. However, HDSS data on the vital status of newborns are often unreliable due to omission of those who were born and died between two rounds of data collection and are therefore never enumerated. This study investigates whether pregnancy registration improves estimation of under-five mortality (U5M) in three HDSSs in The Gambia, Kenya, and South Africa. We find that mortality is higher for children whose mother's pregnancy was observed than for children who were first registered after birth. Cox proportional hazards models with inverse probability weights further suggest that this difference is probably due to improved ascertainment of deaths in pregnancy cohorts and unlikely to be driven by a selection effect. These results highlight the importance of pregnancy registration in HDSSs for the estimation of U5M.

In historical populations, death rates for females often exceeded those of males in reproductive ages. However, childbirth-related deaths were not the only cause of excess mortality among adult women. This study expands on work by Schofield and colleagues by re-examining mortality after childbirth in the Cambridge Group Family Reconstitutions. Part 1 applies event history methods in a new way to focus on excess mortality following childbirth. Unlike previous methods, which assumed equal background mortality for wives and husbands, this method compares maternal and paternal mortality. The results show higher mortality for females than males even after removing deaths following childbirth. Part 2 explores the determinants of maternal deaths in the puerperal period. Deaths of new mothers rose when their husbands and children were more likely to die, but the risks of death for new mothers were much higher than for other married adults. These results highlight the extraordinary vulnerability of mothers in the weeks following childbirth.

This paper aims to assess the effect of the Great Recession on population-level immigrant mortality in Spain, highlighting the mediating effects of migration flows that shape the composition of immigrant populations. To investigate this, I use individual data from Spain's death and population registers for the period 2003-19. First, I find a significant mortality advantage at adult ages for non-Western immigrants compared with the native born. Second, I show that this mortality advantage for immigrants relative to the native born increased during the Great Recession, despite immigrants being affected more by the unemployment crisis. Unemployment-driven outmigration flows may have contributed to this change in relative mortality at ages 40-59, meaning that immigrants returning to their country were negatively selected. I argue that the crisis may have imposed a second selection on non-Western immigrants staying in Spain and that negative selection at departure-even if not due to ill health itself-affected mortality.

Despite its significance, men's fertility has been largely overlooked in demographic research. This study seeks to address this gap by conducting a systematic comparative analysis of men's and women's fertility using data from the Spanish ECEPOV-2021 survey, a large-scale data set (N  =  424,493) from the Spanish national statistical office. Findings indicate that women generally exhibit slightly higher completed cohort fertility rates than men, with exceptions among remarried, college-educated, and immigrant men, who show higher fertility than their female counterparts. Childlessness emerges as a key factor underlying fertility differentials between the sexes, accounting for nearly half of the observed difference. After using matching techniques to control for compositional differences, the study concludes that adjusting for demographic and socio-economic factors significantly reduces, although does not entirely eliminate, the fertility differential. Residual differences may stem from measurement errors, selection biases, or unmeasured variables.

We follow general fertility rates (GFRs) in Switzerland up to 2022, with a focus on their dynamics during and after pandemics. Historical influenza pandemics (1889-90, 1918-20, 1957) have consistently led to temporary declines in births between six and nine months after the pandemic peak. High rates of miscarriage may explain these findings. After the 1889-90 and 1918-20 pandemics, short-term baby booms occurred. For the recent Covid-19 pandemic, the dynamics appear more complex. The GFR had already been declining since 2018, before the pandemic hit Switzerland. During and shortly after the first two waves in 2020, there was an increase in conceptions, leading to a higher GFR in 2021: shutdown measures may have brought planned pregnancies forwards. Subsequently, the GFR declined from February 2022; one possible explanation is that pregnancies were intentionally postponed until after vaccination. Following these population-level observations, more in-depth studies are needed to understand better why fertility is affected by pandemics.

This paper explores the shift in family influence on socio-economic outcomes, focusing on sibling relationships, from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries in the Barcelona area. Our findings reveal a diminishing role of vertical ties (parents-children) and an increasing significance of horizontal ties (between siblings). Specifically, brothers who were first in the sibling group to marry exerted more influence on socio-economic persistence over time, aligning with the changes in familial dynamics since proto-industrialization. Gender dynamics highlight the influence of first-married brothers' influence, although first-married sisters were also significantly associated with non-first-married siblings' social mobility. The intensification of horizontal ties is seen as a cooperative model among siblings, challenging the notion of a complete loss of family influence during industrialization. The study contributes nuance to modernization theory by highlighting the enduring importance of kinship in industrial periods, especially among siblings.

Internal migration fell in high-income countries such as Australia, the UK, and the United States during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. High-level explanations for these declines have referred to developmental stage (Zelinsky's super-advanced society), changed values and preferences (secular rootedness), and long-run socio-demographic change (second demographic transition). We assess the relevance of these overlapping interpretations in the Norwegian context via a combination of direct empirical tests (using full-population register data for 1981-2015 and Oaxaca-Blinder analysis) and indirect assessments based on the inherent features of the Norwegian case study. The net effect of changes in population composition and behaviours has been to increase migration: the upward effects of a more educated population and changed household structures have outweighed the downward effects of population ageing. Our results raise questions about how far these macro explanations of migration decline are generally applicable. We offer some suggestions for future conceptual and empirical investigation.

In the context of low fertility and population ageing, many countries look to immigration to address labour shortages and reduce the effects of population decline. While the short-term effects of immigration are relatively well understood, the long-term demographic consequences of high and sustained immigration are still undetermined. In this paper, we highlight the major contributions that immigration has made to population change across 11 geographic areas in Australia from 1981 to 2021. The analyses use recently reconciled demographic component data for 18 overseas-born subgroups and the Australia-born population by age and sex. While net international migration of overseas-born people contributed approximately 56 per cent of overall population growth over the 40-year period, immigrants also made sizeable contributions to other demographic processes: 28 per cent of births, 31 per cent of deaths, and 17 per cent of interregional migration. This research provides new insights into both period-specific and long-term demographic effects of diverse immigration streams across Australia's cities and regions.