Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

Health is rarely used as an explanatory variable in fertility studies in high-income contexts, unlike in low-income settings. Using the 1958 National Child Development Study, we explore how self-rated health (SRH) and body mass index (BMI) at age 23 relate to achievement of fertility goals by age 46. We find that worse SRH and a BMI outside the healthy range at age 23 are strongly associated with lower fertility and underachieving fertility goals. While poor SRH is associated with lower fertility mostly among men, BMI outside the healthy range at 23 is more significant for women. Additional analyses indicate that employment and union history partly mediate the effect of health on fertility, but health retains a substantive direct effect. Our findings suggest that health in early adulthood is an important determinant, whether direct or indirect, of family life-course trajectories. This paper endorses the inclusion of health as an explanatory variable in studies of fertility in high-income contexts.

This study uses census-linked administrative data to investigate childbearing trends by birth order in Britain over three decades. This is the first study to investigate longer-term changes in fertility dynamics in Britain by birth order and to compare parity-specific fertility by country. First-birth rates declined in the 1990s, slightly increased in the first decade of this century, and decreased thereafter, with changes in timing of parenthood responsible for these changes. Second- and third-birth rates declined in the 1990s but remained relatively stable in the early twenty-first century. Birth intervals remained unchanged, meaning that changes in quantum are responsible for trends in higher-order birth rates. Time trends are similar in England & Wales and Scotland but with significantly lower second- and third-birth rates in Scotland. Changes in population composition by education and ethnicity explain little of the aggregate fertility trends or between-country differences. Both countries have seen rapid declines in first-birth rates, especially among low-educated women.

Insecurities and risks related to ageing in a foreign country could fuel return migration among international retirement migrants. The few studies examining retirement migrants' return have been small in scale and focused mainly on return intentions rather than return behaviour. In this paper, we examine the prevalence and predictors of return migration among retirement migrants and the discrepancy between return intentions and return behaviour. We collected survey data on a representative sample of 5,065 Dutch retirement migrants in 40 destinations and combined them with administrative data on return migration. Three years after data collection, almost 9 per cent had returned to the Netherlands, whereas less than 5 per cent had intended to return during this period. Our findings show how age-related changes and transnational ties to the country of origin increase the likelihood of return. Our results also suggest that retirement migrants may underestimate the long-term implications and social embeddedness of the return migration decision.

Italy has witnessed increases in life expectancy and population ageing, raising concerns about their impact on population health. Disability status greatly affects the participation of mid-to-older-aged adults in various aspects of life. We examine the long-term trend in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) in Italy, over three different periods between 2004 and 2019, and explore disability dynamics (onset and recovery) and changes in disability-specific mortality. We use IT-SILC longitudinal data to estimate transition probabilities and DFLE between ages 50 and 79 and decompose DFLE changes in terms of these transitions. Overall, DFLE has improved over recent decades but not always as favourably as life expectancy. The trends indicate compression of disability between ages 50 and 79 in the most recent years. Changes in disability transitions have had the greatest influence, whereas disability-specific mortality has had much less impact on DFLE changes. The greatest contributions have come from increases in the probability of recovery from disability.

This study examines the impact of China's regional pilot programmes, which aimed to reduce the sex ratio at birth (SRB) by prohibiting prenatal sex selection. These programmes, implemented in six provinces between 1996 and 2001, served as a precursor to the nationwide policy introduced in 2003. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach and microdata from the 2010 Population Census, we estimate the causal effects of these pilot programmes on the SRB. The results indicate a significant decline in SRB for second and higher-order births but no meaningful change for first births, suggesting a relatively modest overall impact. The policy was more effective among populations with better economic conditions and higher maternal education and among non-agricultural hukou holders and migrants. This heterogeneity underscores the importance of socio-economic factors, gender-egalitarian attitudes, and strength of policy enforcement in determining the policy's success. These findings provide valuable insights into the potential effects of the 2003 nationwide policy.

Fujian Province has been confirmed by several studies as one of China's hotspot destinations for child trafficking, making it a typical region for understanding the characteristics, routes, and causes of child trafficking. This study explores these issues in Fujian Province using publicly available data from a public-interest missing persons website. The results indicate that trafficked children in Fujian were predominantly infant aged. Trafficked children clearly flowed from south-west to south-east China, with Guizhou Province a major source of trafficking and Fujian Province as the primary destination, particularly between 1980 and 2000. Quanzhou and Putian have consistently been key node cities in Fujian's child-trafficking network. Furthermore, we find that the purchase of trafficked children is viewed by individuals as a means to resolve reproductive issues, maintain family lineage, and address other related concerns. This demand lowers the threshold for criminality and reduces the strength of crime regulation at the community and societal levels through interpersonal networks.

Using Norwegian register data and data from the World Marriage Database, we investigate how marriage behaviour in countries of origin is associated with the first partnership choices of the children of immigrants (i.e. the second generation and childhood migrants). We consider the timing and type of first partnership, distinguishing between marriage and cohabitation and between endogamous, exogamous, and majority-background partner choices. Results from discrete-time multilevel models confirm that less traditional partnership behaviour in origin countries, characterized by a later singulate mean age at marriage and a higher share unmarried at ages 25-29, is associated with less traditional behaviour in Norway, such as cohabitation and choosing a majority-background partner. We also examine heterogeneity by sex and migrant generation as well as the importance of the local partner market. Together, our results underscore the significance of origin-country norms and behaviours in shaping the partnership formation of young adults with migrant backgrounds.

Indicators of fertility goals are crucial demographic tools, but the availability of different constructs and misleading language in empirical research are a source of confusion, with fertility desires and intentions often used interchangeably. Fertility desires reflect an intrinsic wish to have children, whereas fertility intentions reflect an actual plan. I operationalize the fertility desires-intentions gap by considering that individuals might: (1) desire and intend; (2) desire but not intend; (3) not desire but intend; or (4) not desire or intend to have (more) children. Using nationally representative data for the United States and drawing from a life-course and gender perspective, I estimate aggregate-level, age-specific, and parity-specific indicators for both men and women and use regression models to identify predictors of the fertility desires-intentions gap. These analyses clarify the confusion generated by different measures, provide insights in light of the recent fertility decline, and reveal the consequences of considering (or not) sterility status in measures of fertility goals.

Evidence shows that immigrants are often in better health than the native born-the so-called 'immigrant health paradox'-and this advantage may extend to their children's health. A commonly cited but rarely tested explanation is the 'selectivity hypothesis', positing that immigrants are healthier due to selection at origin based on health or socio-economic status (SES). Using 2007-19 Spanish birth registries, we investigate immigrant-native gaps in health at birth and whether they are explained by immigrants' educational selectivity. We find that babies born to immigrants are less likely to be low birthweight (LBW) but are disadvantaged in terms of macrosomia and gestational age. Selectivity is associated with reduced LBW even after accounting for parental SES, explaining the lower risk among children of Northern African and Latin American immigrants but not across other parental country-of-birth groups. Selectivity is not associated with other birth outcomes. We confirm the selectivity hypothesis but question its universality across groups and health outcomes.

The sense of belonging to the current neighbourhood may play a role in the transition to parenthood by indicating a feeling of being 'at home' and having access to social resources. However, previous research has indicated that individuals often move house in anticipation of parenthood, likely altering their connection to the neighbourhood in the process. With data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009-23) and using logit regression, we examine the likelihood of a first birth. The results reveal that individuals with a higher sense of belonging to their neighbourhood are more likely to have a first child: especially recent movers compared with long-term residents. Furthermore, while long-distance movers generally show a lower probability of becoming parents, those with a high sense of belonging are as likely as short-distance movers to become parents. These findings suggest that socio-spatial factors play a role in the transition to parenthood.