Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

This paper explores the shift in family influence on socio-economic outcomes, focusing on sibling relationships, from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries in the Barcelona area. Our findings reveal a diminishing role of vertical ties (parents-children) and an increasing significance of horizontal ties (between siblings). Specifically, brothers who were first in the sibling group to marry exerted more influence on socio-economic persistence over time, aligning with the changes in familial dynamics since proto-industrialization. Gender dynamics highlight the influence of first-married brothers' influence, although first-married sisters were also significantly associated with non-first-married siblings' social mobility. The intensification of horizontal ties is seen as a cooperative model among siblings, challenging the notion of a complete loss of family influence during industrialization. The study contributes nuance to modernization theory by highlighting the enduring importance of kinship in industrial periods, especially among siblings.

This study examines an inconsistency between an attitude and a behaviour: non-use of contraception among people who are not trying to get pregnant. More than one in four people in that situation report not using contraception 'sometimes' or 'always' and consequently face the risk of pregnancy. We test three potential explanations: acceptability of having (further) children; perceived low pregnancy risk; and perceived social pressure. Using 10 waves of the German pairfam panel, we estimate sex-specific between-within models, where each explanation is tested by several indicators. We find evidence for the explanation of a(nother) child being considered acceptable: a positive fertility desire increases contraceptive non-use among women and men, and relationship duration increases it among women. Supporting the explanation of low perceived pregnancy risk, analyses show that perceived infertility, breastfeeding, and age increase the probability of non-use of contraception for women and men. However, there is no strong evidence for perceived social pressure affecting contraceptive non-use.

Rising feminization of migration has resulted in substantial flows of women migrating in Africa, increasing the importance of migration in women's lives. Although child fostering is an enduring feature of family life throughout Africa, few studies have examined the role that maternal migration may play in these arrangements. I use Demographic and Health Survey data from 24 African countries to explore associations between maternal migration experience and fostering out of children aged 0-17, focusing on maternal migrant status, migrant stream, motivation, and timing of migration relative to births of children, to explore potential disruption introduced by migration. Results suggest that maternal migration disrupts mother-child co-residence, with greater fostering among children of migrant mothers, particularly rural-urban migrants. Children born before migration display the highest probability of fostering, consistently across migrant streams. These results suggest a need for greater attention to the impacts of maternal migration for children's living arrangements, particularly as migration flows become increasingly feminized.

Young adults moving between wealthy countries for work and adventure are an under-studied group of international migrants. We use a unique combination of full population register data from Sweden and Norway to explore the so-called 'Party Swedes': young Swedes who emigrated to Norway in 2010-12. We follow them and track their median incomes before they left Sweden, during their stay in Norway, and after their return to Sweden. Moreover, we model selection into migration and return, as well as individual income levels after return. Our results suggest that in economic terms, the 'party penalty' clearly seems larger than the 'party premium'. Even though the young Swedes earned well in Norway, this did not translate into higher incomes after returning to Sweden than among their non-migrating peers. These results add to the literature on migrants' income premiums after return, focusing on liquid youth migration.

In countries without adequate death registration systems, adult mortality is often estimated using orphanhood-based methods. The HIV pandemic breaches several assumptions of these methods, for example, by increasing the correlation between maternal and child survival. Using microsimulations we generated 1,152 populations facing HIV epidemics and evaluated different orphanhood-based estimates against the underlying mortality rates. We regressed survivorship probabilities on proportions of respondents with surviving mothers, adjusting for trends in seroprevalence and coverage of antiretroviral therapy, to obtain new coefficients. We tested the different methods on survey and census data from 16 African countries with high HIV prevalence. We found that the original orphanhood method underestimates mortality during an AIDS epidemic, but better estimates can be obtained using new coefficients applied to synthetic measures of maternal survival. The resulting estimates agree well with those of the United Nations Population Division. Orphanhood-based estimates can fill data gaps in adult mortality, including in countries with high HIV prevalence.

Studies in low-fertility settings have consistently found positive relationships between parents' and children's fertility timing and family sizes, and these persist after accounting for socio-demographic factors. We explore intergenerational transmission of fertility in Great Britain, where socio-economic inequalities are larger and could play a greater role in explaining intergenerational continuities than in other settings. Using the 1970 British Cohort Study, a long-running longitudinal data set, we estimate parity-specific discrete-time event-history models to investigate the role of mother's family size and age at first birth in birth transitions. We find stronger evidence for transmission of birth timing and family size in transitions to first and third births than second births. Family size transmission affects daughters more than sons. Accounting for socio-economic and demographic characteristics does not explain these associations. Except for first births, transmission of fertility is equally likely across the socio-economic hierarchy, highlighting the importance of socialization and cultural preferences for fertility transmission, even in the relatively unequal British context.

Precise estimates of the impact of famine on infant and child mortality are rare due to lack of representative data. Using vital statistics reports on the Netherlands for 1935-47, we examine the impact of the Dutch famine (November 1944 to May 1945) on age-specific mortality risk and cause of death in four age groups (stillbirths, <1 year, 1-4, 5-14) in the three largest famine-affected cities and the remainder of the country. Mortality during the famine is compared with the pre-war period January 1935 to April 1940, the war period May 1940 to October 1944, and the post-war period June 1945 to December 1947. The famine's impact was most visible in infants because of the combined effects of a high absolute death rate and a threefold increase in proportional mortality, mostly from gastrointestinal conditions. These factors make infant mortality the most sensitive indicator of famine severity in this setting and a candidate marker for comparative use in future studies.

Stressful experiences are common among migrants and may have health implications. With the only US nationally representative data set on migration, the New Immigrant Survey, we used survey-adjusted descriptive and multivariate regression methods to examine whether victimization prior to resettlement was associated with obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, arthritis, cancer, and chronic lung disease. Among foreign-born people who obtained lawful permanent residence in the US in 2003-04, 6.7 per cent reported victimization before arriving in the US. Those who had experienced victimization more often suffered from chronic conditions than people without such experiences: they were 32 per cent more likely to suffer from at least one chronic condition (p < 0.05), especially cancer (4.36, p < 0.05), arthritis (1.77, p < 0.01), and cardiovascular disease (odds ratio 1.32, p < 0.05). These relationships were in part mediated by differences in healthcare access after arriving in the US between those who had experienced victimization and those who had not. Victimization may have consequences for integration and later-life chronic disease.

Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.

Grandparental support may protect mothers from depression, particularly mothers who separate and enter single parenthood. Using longitudinal Finnish register data on 116,917 separating and 371,703 non-separating mothers with young children, we examined differences in mothers' antidepressant purchases by grandparental characteristics related to provision of support. Grandparents' younger age (<70 years), employment, and lack of severe health problems predicted a lower probability of maternal depression. Depression was also less common if grandparents lived close to the mother and if the maternal grandparents' union was intact. Differences in maternal depression by grandparental characteristics were larger among separating than among non-separating mothers, particularly during the years before separation. Overall, maternal grandmothers' characteristics appeared to matter most, while the role of paternal grandparents was smaller. The findings suggest that grandparental characteristics associated with increased potential for providing support and decreased need of receiving support predict a lower likelihood of maternal depression, particularly among separating mothers.