Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-09-12DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2243913
Ingrid J J de Zwarte, Peter Ekamper, L H Lumey
Precise estimates of the impact of famine on infant and child mortality are rare due to lack of representative data. Using vital statistics reports on the Netherlands for 1935-47, we examine the impact of the Dutch famine (November 1944 to May 1945) on age-specific mortality risk and cause of death in four age groups (stillbirths, <1 year, 1-4, 5-14) in the three largest famine-affected cities and the remainder of the country. Mortality during the famine is compared with the pre-war period January 1935 to April 1940, the war period May 1940 to October 1944, and the post-war period June 1945 to December 1947. The famine's impact was most visible in infants because of the combined effects of a high absolute death rate and a threefold increase in proportional mortality, mostly from gastrointestinal conditions. These factors make infant mortality the most sensitive indicator of famine severity in this setting and a candidate marker for comparative use in future studies.
由于缺乏具有代表性的数据,有关饥荒对婴幼儿死亡率影响的精确估计非常罕见。
{"title":"Infant and child mortality in the Netherlands 1935-47 and changes related to the Dutch famine of 1944-45: A population-based analysis.","authors":"Ingrid J J de Zwarte, Peter Ekamper, L H Lumey","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2243913","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2243913","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Precise estimates of the impact of famine on infant and child mortality are rare due to lack of representative data. Using vital statistics reports on the Netherlands for 1935-47, we examine the impact of the Dutch famine (November 1944 to May 1945) on age-specific mortality risk and cause of death in four age groups (stillbirths, <1 year, 1-4, 5-14) in the three largest famine-affected cities and the remainder of the country. Mortality during the famine is compared with the pre-war period January 1935 to April 1940, the war period May 1940 to October 1944, and the post-war period June 1945 to December 1947. The famine's impact was most visible in infants because of the combined effects of a high absolute death rate and a threefold increase in proportional mortality, mostly from gastrointestinal conditions. These factors make infant mortality the most sensitive indicator of famine severity in this setting and a candidate marker for comparative use in future studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10927613/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10653403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2024-08-20DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2371286
Solveig A Cunningham, Marie Sugihara, Rebecca E Jones-Antwi
Stressful experiences are common among migrants and may have health implications. With the only US nationally representative data set on migration, the New Immigrant Survey, we used survey-adjusted descriptive and multivariate regression methods to examine whether victimization prior to resettlement was associated with obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, arthritis, cancer, and chronic lung disease. Among foreign-born people who obtained lawful permanent residence in the US in 2003-04, 6.7 per cent reported victimization before arriving in the US. Those who had experienced victimization more often suffered from chronic conditions than people without such experiences: they were 32 per cent more likely to suffer from at least one chronic condition (p < 0.05), especially cancer (4.36, p < 0.05), arthritis (1.77, p < 0.01), and cardiovascular disease (odds ratio 1.32, p < 0.05). These relationships were in part mediated by differences in healthcare access after arriving in the US between those who had experienced victimization and those who had not. Victimization may have consequences for integration and later-life chronic disease.
压力经历在移民中很常见,可能会对健康产生影响。利用美国唯一具有全国代表性的移民数据集《新移民调查》,我们采用调查调整描述性和多元回归方法,研究移民定居前的受害经历是否与肥胖、心血管疾病、糖尿病、关节炎、癌症和慢性肺病有关。在2003-04年获得美国合法永久居留权的外国出生者中,有6.7%的人报告在抵达美国之前曾受到伤害。与没有受害经历的人相比,有过受害经历的人更经常患有慢性病:他们至少患有一种慢性病的可能性比没有受害经历的人高出 32%(p p p p)。
{"title":"Experiences of victimization before resettlement and chronic disease among foreign-born people in the United States.","authors":"Solveig A Cunningham, Marie Sugihara, Rebecca E Jones-Antwi","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2371286","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2371286","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Stressful experiences are common among migrants and may have health implications. With the only US nationally representative data set on migration, the New Immigrant Survey, we used survey-adjusted descriptive and multivariate regression methods to examine whether victimization prior to resettlement was associated with obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, arthritis, cancer, and chronic lung disease. Among foreign-born people who obtained lawful permanent residence in the US in 2003-04, 6.7 per cent reported victimization before arriving in the US. Those who had experienced victimization more often suffered from chronic conditions than people without such experiences: they were 32 per cent more likely to suffer from at least one chronic condition (<i>p </i>< 0.05), especially cancer (4.36, <i>p </i>< 0.05), arthritis (1.77, <i>p </i>< 0.01), and cardiovascular disease (odds ratio 1.32, <i>p </i>< 0.05). These relationships were in part mediated by differences in healthcare access after arriving in the US between those who had experienced victimization and those who had not. Victimization may have consequences for integration and later-life chronic disease.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11479837/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142009704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-03-07DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2176535
Daniel C Schneider, Mikko Myrskylä, Alyson van Raalte
Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.
离散时间多态生命表具有吸引力,因为与连续时间生命表相比,它们更容易理解和应用。虽然此类模型基于离散时间网格,但在假设过渡发生在其他时间(如周期中期)的情况下,计算推导出的量级(如状态占据时间)往往很有用。遗憾的是,目前可用的模型很少允许选择过渡时间。我们建议使用带奖励的马尔可夫链作为将过渡时间信息纳入模型的一般方法。我们通过使用不同的退休过渡时间估算工作预期寿命,说明了基于奖励的多态生命表的实用性。我们还证明,在单州情况下,奖励方法与传统的生命表方法完全匹配。最后,我们提供了复制论文中所有结果的代码,以及 R 和 Stata 软件包,以便普遍使用所提出的方法。
{"title":"Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards.","authors":"Daniel C Schneider, Mikko Myrskylä, Alyson van Raalte","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2176535","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2176535","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10850481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2024-02-14DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2287493
Niina Metsä-Simola, Anna Baranowska-Rataj, Hanna Remes, Mine Kühn, Pekka Martikainen
Grandparental support may protect mothers from depression, particularly mothers who separate and enter single parenthood. Using longitudinal Finnish register data on 116,917 separating and 371,703 non-separating mothers with young children, we examined differences in mothers' antidepressant purchases by grandparental characteristics related to provision of support. Grandparents' younger age (<70 years), employment, and lack of severe health problems predicted a lower probability of maternal depression. Depression was also less common if grandparents lived close to the mother and if the maternal grandparents' union was intact. Differences in maternal depression by grandparental characteristics were larger among separating than among non-separating mothers, particularly during the years before separation. Overall, maternal grandmothers' characteristics appeared to matter most, while the role of paternal grandparents was smaller. The findings suggest that grandparental characteristics associated with increased potential for providing support and decreased need of receiving support predict a lower likelihood of maternal depression, particularly among separating mothers.
{"title":"Grandparental support and maternal depression: Do grandparents' characteristics matter more for separating mothers?","authors":"Niina Metsä-Simola, Anna Baranowska-Rataj, Hanna Remes, Mine Kühn, Pekka Martikainen","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2287493","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2287493","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Grandparental support may protect mothers from depression, particularly mothers who separate and enter single parenthood. Using longitudinal Finnish register data on 116,917 separating and 371,703 non-separating mothers with young children, we examined differences in mothers' antidepressant purchases by grandparental characteristics related to provision of support. Grandparents' younger age (<70 years), employment, and lack of severe health problems predicted a lower probability of maternal depression. Depression was also less common if grandparents lived close to the mother and if the maternal grandparents' union was intact. Differences in maternal depression by grandparental characteristics were larger among separating than among non-separating mothers, particularly during the years before separation. Overall, maternal grandmothers' characteristics appeared to matter most, while the role of paternal grandparents was smaller. The findings suggest that grandparental characteristics associated with increased potential for providing support and decreased need of receiving support predict a lower likelihood of maternal depression, particularly among separating mothers.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139736451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2024-02-06DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2287510
Beata Osiewalska, Anna Matysiak, Anna Kurowska
We examine the timely yet greatly under-researched interplay between home-based work (HBW) and women's birth transitions. Past research has shown that HBW may facilitate and/or jeopardize work-family balance, depending on the worker's family and work circumstances. Following that research, we develop here a theoretical framework on how HBW can facilitate or hinder fertility. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study 2009-19 and random-effects cloglog regression, we study the link between HBW and first- and second-birth risks. We find that HBW is negatively associated with the transition to motherhood and unrelated to the progression to a second child. We also show that HBW helps to enable women to have children if they would otherwise face a long commute. All in all, our findings do not support the idea that the spread of HBW will lead to an immediate increase in fertility.
{"title":"Home-based work and childbearing.","authors":"Beata Osiewalska, Anna Matysiak, Anna Kurowska","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2287510","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2287510","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We examine the timely yet greatly under-researched interplay between home-based work (HBW) and women's birth transitions. Past research has shown that HBW may facilitate and/or jeopardize work-family balance, depending on the worker's family and work circumstances. Following that research, we develop here a theoretical framework on how HBW can facilitate or hinder fertility. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study 2009-19 and random-effects cloglog regression, we study the link between HBW and first- and second-birth risks. We find that HBW is negatively associated with the transition to motherhood and unrelated to the progression to a second child. We also show that HBW helps to enable women to have children if they would otherwise face a long commute. All in all, our findings do not support the idea that the spread of HBW will lead to an immediate increase in fertility.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139693241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-07-26DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2228297
Sigurd Dyrting, Andrew Taylor
Demographers have developed a number of methods for expanding abridged mortality data into a complete schedule; however, these can be usefully applied only under certain conditions, and the presence or absence of one or more additional sources of incompleteness can degrade their relative accuracy, lead to implausible profiles, or even cause the methods to fail. We develop a new method for expanding an abridged schedule based on calibrated splines; this method is accurate and robust in the presence of errors in mortality rates, missing values, and truncation. We compare its performance with the performance of existing methods for expanding abridged data and find that it is superior to current methods at producing accurate and plausible complete schedules over a broad range of data-quality conditions. The method when applied is a valuable addition to existing tools for estimating mortality, especially for small nations, countries with incomplete vital statistics, and subnational populations.
{"title":"Estimating age-specific mortality using calibrated splines.","authors":"Sigurd Dyrting, Andrew Taylor","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2228297","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2228297","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Demographers have developed a number of methods for expanding abridged mortality data into a complete schedule; however, these can be usefully applied only under certain conditions, and the presence or absence of one or more additional sources of incompleteness can degrade their relative accuracy, lead to implausible profiles, or even cause the methods to fail. We develop a new method for expanding an abridged schedule based on calibrated splines; this method is accurate and robust in the presence of errors in mortality rates, missing values, and truncation. We compare its performance with the performance of existing methods for expanding abridged data and find that it is superior to current methods at producing accurate and plausible complete schedules over a broad range of data-quality conditions. The method when applied is a valuable addition to existing tools for estimating mortality, especially for small nations, countries with incomplete vital statistics, and subnational populations.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9871381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01Epub Date: 2023-11-29DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2266403
Linus Andersson, Martin Kolk
The influence of kin on various outcomes is heavily debated. However, kinship size itself conditions the probability of potential effects. Socio-economic gradients in the prevalence, variance, and types of kin are, therefore, a vital aspect of the functions of kin. Unfortunately, these parameters are largely unknown. We used Swedish register data to enumerate consanguine and in-law kin across the life course of the 1975 birth cohort. We calculated differences in kinship size between this cohort's income quartiles and educational groups. We decomposed how specific kin relations, generations, and demographic behaviours contributed to these differences. Among low socio-economic status (SES) groups, higher fertility in earlier generations resulted in more kin compared with high-SES groups. Low-SES groups had more horizontal consanguine kin, while high-SES groups had more in-laws. Lower fertility and higher union instability among low-SES men substantially narrowed SES differences in kinship size. Kinship size varied substantially within SES groups.
{"title":"Kinship and socio-economic status: Social gradients in frequencies of kin across the life course in Sweden.","authors":"Linus Andersson, Martin Kolk","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2266403","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2266403","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The influence of kin on various outcomes is heavily debated. However, kinship size itself conditions the probability of potential effects. Socio-economic gradients in the prevalence, variance, and types of kin are, therefore, a vital aspect of the functions of kin. Unfortunately, these parameters are largely unknown. We used Swedish register data to enumerate consanguine and in-law kin across the life course of the 1975 birth cohort. We calculated differences in kinship size between this cohort's income quartiles and educational groups. We decomposed how specific kin relations, generations, and demographic behaviours contributed to these differences. Among low socio-economic status (SES) groups, higher fertility in earlier generations resulted in more kin compared with high-SES groups. Low-SES groups had more horizontal consanguine kin, while high-SES groups had more in-laws. Lower fertility and higher union instability among low-SES men substantially narrowed SES differences in kinship size. Kinship size varied substantially within SES groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138452839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-18DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2393622
Josep Lledó, Jose M Pavía, Carles Simó-Noguera
This study investigates birthdate patterns in a context of well-established civil registers and intensive migration inflows. Leveraging extensive Spanish microdata on residential variation flows and the Spanish Municipality Register, this research reveals new facets of the distributions of immigrants' birthdates across days of the month that differ significantly from those of non-migrants. The registered days of the month for birthdates are categorized into six distinct types based on the assumption that the anomalous distributions of birthdates will display rounding or simplifying patterns (digit preferences). The investigation reveals important anomalies in the distribution of birthdates that are much more pronounced for immigrants. A notable concentration of recorded birthdates is confirmed within all the designated types, contrasted by an under-recording of births on the remaining days of the month. These anomalies depend primarily on migrants' country of origin and age group. The paper ends by proposing some recommendations for mitigating the anomalies.
{"title":"Anomalous distributions of birthdates across days of the month: An analysis using Spanish statistical records.","authors":"Josep Lledó, Jose M Pavía, Carles Simó-Noguera","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2393622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2393622","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study investigates birthdate patterns in a context of well-established civil registers and intensive migration inflows. Leveraging extensive Spanish microdata on residential variation flows and the Spanish Municipality Register, this research reveals new facets of the distributions of immigrants' birthdates across days of the month that differ significantly from those of non-migrants. The registered days of the month for birthdates are categorized into six distinct types based on the assumption that the anomalous distributions of birthdates will display rounding or simplifying patterns (digit preferences). The investigation reveals important anomalies in the distribution of birthdates that are much more pronounced for immigrants. A notable concentration of recorded birthdates is confirmed within all the designated types, contrasted by an under-recording of births on the remaining days of the month. These anomalies depend primarily on migrants' country of origin and age group. The paper ends by proposing some recommendations for mitigating the anomalies.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142477781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-21DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2382152
Risto Conte Keivabu, Marco Cozzani, Joshua Wilde
In this paper, we combine administrative data for Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data, to identify the effect of daily mean temperature on fertility. We demonstrate for Spain that hot days (≥25°C) decrease the total fertility rate nine months after exposure. Moreover, we do not observe any substantial heterogeneities in the effect of heat by mother's age, mother's educational attainment, sex of the newborn, climatic area, or air conditioning penetration. Our results suggest that climate change may be altering the seasonal distribution of births and affect fertility rates in a context with low fertility and rapid population ageing.
{"title":"Temperature and fertility: Evidence from Spain.","authors":"Risto Conte Keivabu, Marco Cozzani, Joshua Wilde","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2382152","DOIUrl":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2382152","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we combine administrative data for Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data, to identify the effect of daily mean temperature on fertility. We demonstrate for Spain that hot days (≥25°C) decrease the total fertility rate nine months after exposure. Moreover, we do not observe any substantial heterogeneities in the effect of heat by mother's age, mother's educational attainment, sex of the newborn, climatic area, or air conditioning penetration. Our results suggest that climate change may be altering the seasonal distribution of births and affect fertility rates in a context with low fertility and rapid population ageing.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142019114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-13DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2372018
Honorata Bogusz, Anna Matysiak, Michaela Kreyenfeld
Technological change and globalization have caused unprecedented transformations of labour markets, resulting in a growing division between workers who perform cognitive vs non-cognitive tasks. To date, only few studies have addressed the fertility effects of these long-term structural changes. This study fills that gap. We measure the cognitive task content of occupations using data from the Employment Survey of the German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, which we link to individual histories from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-2018. We find that women and men with non-cognitive jobs are increasingly less likely to enter parenthood; this is reflected in lower first-birth intensities but also in higher probabilities of childlessness compared with workers in highly cognitive jobs. These findings imply that structural shifts in the labour market are exacerbating disparities between low-skilled and highly skilled individuals, not only within the labour market but also in the realm of family formation.
{"title":"Structural labour market change, cognitive work, and entry to parenthood in Germany.","authors":"Honorata Bogusz, Anna Matysiak, Michaela Kreyenfeld","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2372018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2372018","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Technological change and globalization have caused unprecedented transformations of labour markets, resulting in a growing division between workers who perform cognitive vs non-cognitive tasks. To date, only few studies have addressed the fertility effects of these long-term structural changes. This study fills that gap. We measure the cognitive task content of occupations using data from the Employment Survey of the German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, which we link to individual histories from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-2018. We find that women and men with non-cognitive jobs are increasingly less likely to enter parenthood; this is reflected in lower first-birth intensities but also in higher probabilities of childlessness compared with workers in highly cognitive jobs. These findings imply that structural shifts in the labour market are exacerbating disparities between low-skilled and highly skilled individuals, not only within the labour market but also in the realm of family formation.</p>","PeriodicalId":47814,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies-A Journal of Demography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141976933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}