电动汽车充电需求影响因素调查:机器学习方法

Cuthbert Ruseruka , Judith Mwakalonge , Gurcan Comert , Saidi Siuhi , Debbie Indah , Sarah Kasomi , Tumlumbe Juliana Chengula
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引用次数: 0

摘要

最近的技术进步促进了电动汽车(EVs)的发展,极大地推动了世界的去碳化进程。电动汽车缓解了交通对作为能源来源的天然化石燃料的依赖。据估计,全世界生产的石油产品有 50% 以上用于运输部门,占所有运输能源的 90% 以上。因此,据研究估计,交通部门产生的二氧化碳排放量约占全球总量的 22%,造成了严重的环境问题。因此,使用电动汽车,尤其是在公路运输中使用电动汽车,有望减少环境污染。为了加快电动汽车的发展和部署,世界各国政府通过各种举措投资于电动汽车的发展,使电动汽车的价格更加低廉。本研究旨在调查电动汽车用户不断变化的需求,通过机器学习,使用极端梯度提升模型,确定选择充电需求时应考虑的因素。该模型的准确度很高,在所有预测需求中的 R2 分数都在 0.964 到 1.000 之间。年龄、收入中位数、教育程度和汽车保有量对模型的性能影响很大。高收入、高学历和年龄在 35-54 岁之间的高数值人群对模型的性能有积极贡献,而 65 岁以上、低收入和低学历人群则相反。这项研究的成果记录了影响电动汽车充电需求的因素,因此,它为决策者和所有利益相关者提供了一个基础,以决定在何处设置电动汽车充电站,从而实现可用性、效率、可持续性和社会福利。
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An Investigation of factors Influencing electric vehicles charging Needs: Machine learning approach

Decarbonization of the world is greatly contributed to by the recent technological advancements that have fostered the development of electric vehicles (EVs). The EVs relieve transportation dependence on natural fossil fuels as an energy source. More than 50 % of the petroleum products produced worldwide are estimated to be used in the transportation sector, accounting for more than 90 % of all transportation energy sources. Consequently, studies estimate that the transportation sector produces about 22 % of global carbon dioxide emissions, posing significant environmental issues. Thus, using EVs, particularly on road transport, is expected to reduce environmental pollution. To accelerate EV development and deployment, governments worldwide invest in EV development through various initiatives to make them more affordable. This research aims to investigate the changing needs of EV users to establish factors to be considered in the selection of charging demands using machine learning, using an extreme gradient boosting model. The model reached high accuracy, with an R2-Score of 0.964 to 1.000 across all predicted needs. The model performance is greatly affected by age, median income, education, and car ownership. High values of people with high income, high education, and age between 35–54 years show a positive contribution to the model’s performance, contrary to those with 65+, low income, and low education attainment. The outcomes of this research document factors that influence EV charging needs; therefore, it provides a basis for decision-makers and all stakeholders to decide where to locate EV charging stations for usability, efficiency, sustainability, and social welfare.

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来源期刊
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Engineering-Automotive Engineering
CiteScore
12.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
185
审稿时长
22 weeks
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