Crises and the Demand for Tourism: A Territorial Perspective

This study analyzes jointly the effects of various types of crises on tourism demand in the 17 territories within Spain and how they affect distinct strands of tourism. Three very different crises are considered: the Great Recession, the Arab Spring, and the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper proposes an objective classification of the Spanish provinces that considers the importance of tourism activity. The impacts of the crises are analyzed and compared with those obtained from a classification based on the geographical location of the provinces. We carry out the study by estimating dynamic panel data models that incorporate a generalized method of moments (GMM). The results report high significance levels for the persistence, price, and income variables. From a territorial perspective, and with the important exception of inland provinces, there are no significant differences in the variations in tourism demand. In light of these results, policy implications are discussed.