利用新兴技术应对人口老龄化带来的交通挑战:日本的经验

IF 12.9 1区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123729
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着全球人口老龄化的加速,解决人口老龄化对社会的多重影响已成为技术发展的关键任务。交通是人口老龄化既带来挑战又带来机遇的一个关键领域。自动驾驶汽车和移动即服务(MaaS)等创新在文献中得到了广泛讨论,许多研究侧重于用户接受度。但关于在老年人出行服务中实施这些创新的经验却缺乏了解。本实证研究通过对从业人员和专家的访谈,加深了对老龄化社会带来的交通挑战以及技术和服务创新如何应对这些挑战的认识。以日本为例,我们研究了:(1) 人口老龄化和衰退导致的与交通相关的问题;(2) 对 MaaS 和自动驾驶汽车解决这些问题的潜力的期望;以及 (3) 实现这些期望的障碍。分析显示,日本的人口老龄化正在带来社会挑战,尤其是在安全、驾驶员短缺、交通服务和盈利能力下降、无障碍障碍以及健康和福祉受损等方面。这些挑战相互关联、自我强化,因此难以解决。随着下一代交通项目在日本各地蓬勃发展,我们发现了对其潜力的期望与所面临的严峻现实之间的矛盾。
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Using emerging technologies to tackle mobility challenges caused by population ageing: Experiences from Japan

As population ageing accelerates globally, addressing its manifold impacts on society has become a critical mission for technological development. Mobility is a key domain where population ageing poses both challenges and opportunities. Innovations such as autonomous vehicles and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) are widely discussed in literature, with many studies focusing on user acceptance. But knowledge lacks about the experiences of implementing these innovations in mobility services for elderly people. This empirical study uses evidence from interviews with practitioners and experts to deepen knowledge of the mobility challenges caused by an ageing society, and how technological and service innovation could address these. With Japan as a case study, we examine: (1) mobility-related problems caused by population ageing and decline; (2) expectations regarding the potential of MaaS and autonomous vehicles to address these problems; and (3) barriers to achieving these expectations. The analysis reveals that population ageing in Japan is creating societal challenges especially in safety, driver shortages, deteriorating transport services and profitability, accessibility barriers, and compromised health and well-being. These challenges are interlinked and self-reinforcing, making them difficult to address. As next-generation mobility projects flourish across Japan, we identify tensions between expectations about their potential and the starker reality confronting them.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
21.30
自引率
10.80%
发文量
813
期刊介绍: Technological Forecasting and Social Change is a prominent platform for individuals engaged in the methodology and application of technological forecasting and future studies as planning tools, exploring the interconnectedness of social, environmental, and technological factors. In addition to serving as a key forum for these discussions, we offer numerous benefits for authors, including complimentary PDFs, a generous copyright policy, exclusive discounts on Elsevier publications, and more.
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