全球升温 1.5 °C 对路面气候因素和性能的影响

IF 7.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2024.104393
Yaning Qiao , Yaxin Wang , Shuyue Zhang , Anne M.K. Stoner , João Santos
{"title":"全球升温 1.5 °C 对路面气候因素和性能的影响","authors":"Yaning Qiao ,&nbsp;Yaxin Wang ,&nbsp;Shuyue Zhang ,&nbsp;Anne M.K. Stoner ,&nbsp;João Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2024.104393","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study compared 11 global climate models (GCMs) in assessing the variability of predicted pavement performance in 24 cities in the U.S. under 1.5 °C global warming and presented equations to estimate the impacts of global warming on pavement performance more simply. The results show a spread among GCMs regarding their predicted pavement deterioration with some models resulting in higher deterioration values than others. Thermal cracking, fatigue cracking, total rutting, and international roughness index (IRI) for the investigated 24 cities in the U.S. are found to increase by 124 ft/mi (23.11 m/km), 24 %, 4.6 %, and 1 % on average under 1.5 °C global warming comparatively to the baseline scenario (1991–2010). Regardless of GCMs, the results reveal southern U.S. cities are expected to suffer from greater changes in IRI and thermal cracking, while global warming induced rutting and fatigue cracking will be of greater concern in northern cities than in southern cities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 104393"},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Effects of 1.5 °C global warming on pavement climatic factors and performance\",\"authors\":\"Yaning Qiao ,&nbsp;Yaxin Wang ,&nbsp;Shuyue Zhang ,&nbsp;Anne M.K. Stoner ,&nbsp;João Santos\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.trd.2024.104393\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This study compared 11 global climate models (GCMs) in assessing the variability of predicted pavement performance in 24 cities in the U.S. under 1.5 °C global warming and presented equations to estimate the impacts of global warming on pavement performance more simply. The results show a spread among GCMs regarding their predicted pavement deterioration with some models resulting in higher deterioration values than others. Thermal cracking, fatigue cracking, total rutting, and international roughness index (IRI) for the investigated 24 cities in the U.S. are found to increase by 124 ft/mi (23.11 m/km), 24 %, 4.6 %, and 1 % on average under 1.5 °C global warming comparatively to the baseline scenario (1991–2010). Regardless of GCMs, the results reveal southern U.S. cities are expected to suffer from greater changes in IRI and thermal cracking, while global warming induced rutting and fatigue cracking will be of greater concern in northern cities than in southern cities.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23277,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment\",\"volume\":\"136 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104393\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192092400350X\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192092400350X","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究比较了 11 个全球气候模型 (GCM),以评估在全球变暖 1.5 °C 的情况下,美国 24 个城市的预测路面性能的变异性,并提出了方程,以更简单地估算全球变暖对路面性能的影响。结果表明,全球气候模型在预测路面劣化方面存在差异,一些模型的劣化值高于其他模型。与基准情景(1991-2010 年)相比,在全球升温 1.5 °C 的情况下,美国 24 个受调查城市的热裂缝、疲劳裂缝、总车辙和国际粗糙度指数(IRI)分别平均增加 124 英尺/米(23.11 米/公里)、24%、4.6% 和 1%。无论采用哪种全球气候模拟模型,结果都表明美国南部城市预计将遭受更大的内部裂纹指数和热裂纹变化,而与南部城市相比,全球变暖引起的车辙和疲劳裂纹在北部城市将更受关注。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Effects of 1.5 °C global warming on pavement climatic factors and performance

This study compared 11 global climate models (GCMs) in assessing the variability of predicted pavement performance in 24 cities in the U.S. under 1.5 °C global warming and presented equations to estimate the impacts of global warming on pavement performance more simply. The results show a spread among GCMs regarding their predicted pavement deterioration with some models resulting in higher deterioration values than others. Thermal cracking, fatigue cracking, total rutting, and international roughness index (IRI) for the investigated 24 cities in the U.S. are found to increase by 124 ft/mi (23.11 m/km), 24 %, 4.6 %, and 1 % on average under 1.5 °C global warming comparatively to the baseline scenario (1991–2010). Regardless of GCMs, the results reveal southern U.S. cities are expected to suffer from greater changes in IRI and thermal cracking, while global warming induced rutting and fatigue cracking will be of greater concern in northern cities than in southern cities.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
14.40
自引率
9.20%
发文量
314
审稿时长
39 days
期刊介绍: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.
期刊最新文献
Environmental awareness and transportation choices: A case study in Valencia, Spain Impacts of new metro lines on the activity space of older people Decoupling transport-CO2 emissions: Mexico, Spain and The USA: A trend analysis Unraveling influencing factors of public charging station utilization Modeling energy consumption for battery electric vehicles based on in-use vehicle trajectories
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1