Muhammad Nabeel Aslam , Saqib Ashraf , Sangam Shrestha , Mustajab Ali , Nguyen Cong Hanh
{"title":"气候变化对巴基斯坦胡布河流域水资源短缺的影响","authors":"Muhammad Nabeel Aslam , Saqib Ashraf , Sangam Shrestha , Mustajab Ali , Nguyen Cong Hanh","doi":"10.1016/j.gsd.2024.101339","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Hub River Basin (HRB), a critical transboundary water source for Sindh and Baluchistan provinces in Pakistan, may face worsening water scarcity due to climate change and population growth. This study aims to assess the current state of water scarcity in the HRB and assesses its vulnerability to these pressures in future. To evaluate the baseline water scarcity in the HRB, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was established. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed to project the future climate under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for the HRB. Sector-specific indicators were also used to assess the temporal and altitudinal sensitivity of the basin to climate change. These climate projections were incorporated in the SWAT model to simulate flows for three different periods: Early Future (EF; 2010–2039), Mid Future (MF; 2040–2069), and Far Future (FF; 2070–2099). The SWAT model results indicate significant increase in mean flows simulated by SWAT, ranging from 15.27 to 52.78 m<sup>3</sup>/s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 compared to baseline flows at HRB. Additionally, the study examines the temporal variation in basin stress and scarcity levels using Falkenmark and Water scarcity indicators. The findings indicate a general decrease in the basin's stress and scarcity levels, potentially benefiting water users of the HRB, especially under RCP8.5. This study offers crucial insights for shaping policies and strategies to adapt to climate change and population growth, ultimately aiming to minimize their impacts on HRB's water resources. By informing water managers and promoting sustainable water management practices, this research can help prevent future conflicts over water allocation and infrastructure development linked with the HRB.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":37879,"journal":{"name":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 101339"},"PeriodicalIF":4.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Climate change impact on water scarcity in the Hub River Basin, Pakistan\",\"authors\":\"Muhammad Nabeel Aslam , Saqib Ashraf , Sangam Shrestha , Mustajab Ali , Nguyen Cong Hanh\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.gsd.2024.101339\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The Hub River Basin (HRB), a critical transboundary water source for Sindh and Baluchistan provinces in Pakistan, may face worsening water scarcity due to climate change and population growth. This study aims to assess the current state of water scarcity in the HRB and assesses its vulnerability to these pressures in future. To evaluate the baseline water scarcity in the HRB, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was established. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed to project the future climate under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for the HRB. Sector-specific indicators were also used to assess the temporal and altitudinal sensitivity of the basin to climate change. These climate projections were incorporated in the SWAT model to simulate flows for three different periods: Early Future (EF; 2010–2039), Mid Future (MF; 2040–2069), and Far Future (FF; 2070–2099). The SWAT model results indicate significant increase in mean flows simulated by SWAT, ranging from 15.27 to 52.78 m<sup>3</sup>/s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 compared to baseline flows at HRB. Additionally, the study examines the temporal variation in basin stress and scarcity levels using Falkenmark and Water scarcity indicators. The findings indicate a general decrease in the basin's stress and scarcity levels, potentially benefiting water users of the HRB, especially under RCP8.5. This study offers crucial insights for shaping policies and strategies to adapt to climate change and population growth, ultimately aiming to minimize their impacts on HRB's water resources. By informing water managers and promoting sustainable water management practices, this research can help prevent future conflicts over water allocation and infrastructure development linked with the HRB.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":37879,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Groundwater for Sustainable Development\",\"volume\":\"27 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101339\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Groundwater for Sustainable Development\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352801X24002625\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Groundwater for Sustainable Development","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352801X24002625","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change impact on water scarcity in the Hub River Basin, Pakistan
The Hub River Basin (HRB), a critical transboundary water source for Sindh and Baluchistan provinces in Pakistan, may face worsening water scarcity due to climate change and population growth. This study aims to assess the current state of water scarcity in the HRB and assesses its vulnerability to these pressures in future. To evaluate the baseline water scarcity in the HRB, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was established. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed to project the future climate under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for the HRB. Sector-specific indicators were also used to assess the temporal and altitudinal sensitivity of the basin to climate change. These climate projections were incorporated in the SWAT model to simulate flows for three different periods: Early Future (EF; 2010–2039), Mid Future (MF; 2040–2069), and Far Future (FF; 2070–2099). The SWAT model results indicate significant increase in mean flows simulated by SWAT, ranging from 15.27 to 52.78 m3/s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 compared to baseline flows at HRB. Additionally, the study examines the temporal variation in basin stress and scarcity levels using Falkenmark and Water scarcity indicators. The findings indicate a general decrease in the basin's stress and scarcity levels, potentially benefiting water users of the HRB, especially under RCP8.5. This study offers crucial insights for shaping policies and strategies to adapt to climate change and population growth, ultimately aiming to minimize their impacts on HRB's water resources. By informing water managers and promoting sustainable water management practices, this research can help prevent future conflicts over water allocation and infrastructure development linked with the HRB.
期刊介绍:
Groundwater for Sustainable Development is directed to different stakeholders and professionals, including government and non-governmental organizations, international funding agencies, universities, public water institutions, public health and other public/private sector professionals, and other relevant institutions. It is aimed at professionals, academics and students in the fields of disciplines such as: groundwater and its connection to surface hydrology and environment, soil sciences, engineering, ecology, microbiology, atmospheric sciences, analytical chemistry, hydro-engineering, water technology, environmental ethics, economics, public health, policy, as well as social sciences, legal disciplines, or any other area connected with water issues. The objectives of this journal are to facilitate: • The improvement of effective and sustainable management of water resources across the globe. • The improvement of human access to groundwater resources in adequate quantity and good quality. • The meeting of the increasing demand for drinking and irrigation water needed for food security to contribute to a social and economically sound human development. • The creation of a global inter- and multidisciplinary platform and forum to improve our understanding of groundwater resources and to advocate their effective and sustainable management and protection against contamination. • Interdisciplinary information exchange and to stimulate scientific research in the fields of groundwater related sciences and social and health sciences required to achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goals for sustainable development.