Field strength prediction of 220 kV cable oil terminal defects based on multivariate nonlinear regression model

During the installation of a cable oil terminal, it is easy to leave scratches on the main insulation owing to uneven forces when removing the semi-conductive layer. Scratch defects cause field intensity distortion, which leads to partial discharge and insulation failure. This study attempts to establish a simulation model of a 220 kV cable terminal to determine the effect of the length, depth, and position of the scratch on the maximum field strength at the defect. The simulation and experiment demonstrate that the maximum field strength at the defect increases with greater length and decreases as the depth increases. Therefore, a prediction method for the terminal defect field strength based on a multivariate nonlinear regression model was proposed in this study. When the defect is located at 20 mm from the root of the stress cone, the maximum field strength is 14.5 MV/m when the length and depth are 2 mm and 1 mm, respectively. The maximum field strength at the defect was predicted based on the length, depth, and position of the scratch defect to evaluate the severity of the defect.