An adaptive cycle framework for navigating sustainability of oasis socio-ecological system: The case of Hotan region in Xinjiang, China

Assessing the sustainability of socio-ecological system (SES) is the basis for ensuring human well-being and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) worldwide, especially in arid regions. However, the oasis as a typical socio-ecological system is still lacking a proper approach to examine its evolutionary direction and the sustainability of suitable scale. This study proposes an adaptive cycle framework assessing the sustainability of oasis socio-ecological system to quantify the relationships between the evolution of oasis socio-ecological system and its scale suitability. The framework is constructed by coordination degree, order degree, and oasis suitability metrics of the oasis socio-ecological system to apply in the oases of Tarim basin, Northwest China. The results show that the adaptive cycle evolution of various oases subsystems in study area does not go through four stages successively, but proceeds in a hopping way. The most of them are in the conservation (K) −recognition (α), or recognition (α) − conservation (K) stage. The information entropy of oasis socio-ecological system is inversely proportional to the order degree. The overall oasis information entropy is high ranging from 0.64 to 1.06, but the order degree is at a low level ranging from 0.04 to 0.41. The higher the degree of coordination between subsystems, the higher the degree of oasis suitability. The overall oasis suitability in study area shows a barely appropriate- appropriate-barely appropriate fluctuation state. The main factors affecting the oasis evolution of socio-economic, eco-environment and water resources subsystem are the distribution of industrial structure, green ratio, water consumption per unit grain output, and per capita daily living water consumption, respectively. This study provides support for guiding the sustainable evolution of desert oasis system to adapt to the development scale and the management of oasis socio-ecological system.