Residential carbon emission flows embedded in population migration over time in China: A geospatial dynamics analysis

Population migration is a key driver in reshaping the geospatial pattern of energy consumption and associated carbon emissions. However, the extent of shifts in the geospatial pattern and their primary drivers have not yet been quantitatively validated. We develop an integrated system and a novel structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method and for estimating the residential carbon emissions flows embedded in interprovincial population migration in China from 2010 to 2020. Interestingly, despite the significant increase in the scale of population migration between Chinese provinces (79.94 to 122.83 million), the net increase in carbon emissions due to population migration is decreasing (+23.42 to +5.16 Mt CO₂). Lots of rural-urban migration flows from inland to coastal areas shift from increasing carbon emissions in 2010 to decreasing carbon emissions in 2020. The SDA indicates that the primary driver behind the decline in residential carbon emissions can be attributed to urbanization (-20.82 Mt CO₂). Overall, this study can inform other developing countries on sustainable urbanization and geospatial management for energy decarbonization.