评估流行病期间疾病发病率和免疫接种对复杂网络复原力的影响

IF 8.8 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Infectious Disease Modelling Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.006
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引用次数: 0

摘要

通过物理网络拓扑结构上的免疫人群来控制疾病的严重程度,是防止流行病传播的关键技术。可以通过调整分析接触网络渗流和连通性的常用(基本)方法来量化其影响。随机传播特性难以表达,而物理网络对其有重大影响。物理网络的可视化对于研究和干预疾病传播至关重要。多代理模拟法有助于测量随机性,本研究探讨了各种同质和异质网络中流行病传播的随机特性。本研究通过大量理论分析(解的实在性和有界性、无病平衡点、基本繁殖数、流行平衡点、稳定性分析)和使用 Gilespie 算法的多代理模拟方法,深入探讨了同质和异质网络中流行病传播的随机特征。结果表明,环状网络和网格网络的最终流行病规模的随机变化较小,而 BA-SF 网络的疾病传播开始于阈值之前。理论和确定性结果与多代理模拟(MAS)非常吻合,可为各种多动态传播过程应用提供启示。该研究还提出了空节点、空节点和疾病严重程度的新概念,通过免疫和拓扑结构降低了传染病的发病率。
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Assessing the impact of disease incidence and immunization on the resilience of complex networks during epidemics

Disease severity through an immunized population ensconced on a physical network topology is a key technique for preventing epidemic spreading. Its influence can be quantified by adjusting the common (basic) methodology for analyzing the percolation and connectivity of contact networks. Stochastic spreading properties are difficult to express, and physical networks significantly influence them. Visualizing physical networks is crucial for studying and intervening in disease transmission. The multi-agent simulation method is useful for measuring randomness, and this study explores stochastic characteristics of epidemic transmission in various homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. This work thoroughly explores stochastic characteristics of epidemic propagation in homogeneous and heterogeneous networks through extensive theoretical analysis (positivity and boundedness of solutions, disease-free equilibrium point, basic reproduction number, endemic equilibrium point, stability analysis) and multi-agent simulation approach using the Gilespie algorithm. Results show that Ring and Lattice networks have small stochastic variations in the ultimate epidemic size, while BA-SF networks have disease transmission starting before the threshold value. The theoretical and deterministic aftermaths strongly agree with multi-agent simulations (MAS) and could shed light on various multi-dynamic spreading process applications. The study also proposes a novel concept of void nodes, Empty nodes and disease severity, which reduces the incidence of contagious diseases through immunization and topologies.

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来源期刊
Infectious Disease Modelling
Infectious Disease Modelling Mathematics-Applied Mathematics
CiteScore
17.00
自引率
3.40%
发文量
73
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊介绍: Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.
期刊最新文献
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