新兴经济体的股票市场如何应对世界银行的贷款审批?

IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Emerging Markets Review Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI:10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101207
{"title":"新兴经济体的股票市场如何应对世界银行的贷款审批?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101207","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the impact of World Bank loan approvals on equity markets in borrowing countries. We exploit a rich dataset with World Bank loan commitments and daily stock market returns for 47 emerging markets, allowing us to study short run market reactions to news about World Bank programs. These programs fall into three categories: investment projects, structural adjustment loans that tie future macroeconomic reforms to future loan disbursements (prior to FY2006), and development policy loans that reward completed macroeconomic reforms with current loan disbursements (since FY2006). Event study analysis shows positive abnormal stock market returns on the trading day following investment project loan announcements. The effect depends on loan size as well as market characteristics. Structural adjustment loan announcements are followed by negative abnormal returns; development policy loan announcements, in contrast, are considered good news. This suggests that expected macroeconomic implications of policy change in response to loan conditions drive market reactions, and that changes in the conditionality and disbursement structure of World Bank policy lending were successful in improving market reactions to World Bank programs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How do stock markets in emerging economies respond to World Bank loan approvals?\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101207\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This paper examines the impact of World Bank loan approvals on equity markets in borrowing countries. We exploit a rich dataset with World Bank loan commitments and daily stock market returns for 47 emerging markets, allowing us to study short run market reactions to news about World Bank programs. These programs fall into three categories: investment projects, structural adjustment loans that tie future macroeconomic reforms to future loan disbursements (prior to FY2006), and development policy loans that reward completed macroeconomic reforms with current loan disbursements (since FY2006). Event study analysis shows positive abnormal stock market returns on the trading day following investment project loan announcements. The effect depends on loan size as well as market characteristics. Structural adjustment loan announcements are followed by negative abnormal returns; development policy loan announcements, in contrast, are considered good news. This suggests that expected macroeconomic implications of policy change in response to loan conditions drive market reactions, and that changes in the conditionality and disbursement structure of World Bank policy lending were successful in improving market reactions to World Bank programs.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47886,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Emerging Markets Review\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Emerging Markets Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156601412400102X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Emerging Markets Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S156601412400102X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了世界银行贷款审批对借款国股票市场的影响。我们利用世界银行贷款承诺和 47 个新兴市场每日股市回报的丰富数据集,研究了市场对世界银行项目消息的短期反应。这些项目分为三类:投资项目、将未来宏观经济改革与未来贷款支付挂钩的结构调整贷款(2006 财年之前),以及以当前贷款支付奖励已完成宏观经济改革的发展政策贷款(2006 财年之后)。事件研究分析表明,在投资项目贷款公布后的交易日,股票市场会出现正的异常回报。这种效应取决于贷款规模和市场特征。结构调整贷款公布后,股票市场会出现负的异常回报;相反,发展政策贷款公布后,股票市场会被视为利好消息。这表明,根据贷款条件改变政策的预期宏观经济影响推动了市场反应,世界银行政策性贷款条件和支付结构的变化成功地改善了市场对世界银行项目的反应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
How do stock markets in emerging economies respond to World Bank loan approvals?

This paper examines the impact of World Bank loan approvals on equity markets in borrowing countries. We exploit a rich dataset with World Bank loan commitments and daily stock market returns for 47 emerging markets, allowing us to study short run market reactions to news about World Bank programs. These programs fall into three categories: investment projects, structural adjustment loans that tie future macroeconomic reforms to future loan disbursements (prior to FY2006), and development policy loans that reward completed macroeconomic reforms with current loan disbursements (since FY2006). Event study analysis shows positive abnormal stock market returns on the trading day following investment project loan announcements. The effect depends on loan size as well as market characteristics. Structural adjustment loan announcements are followed by negative abnormal returns; development policy loan announcements, in contrast, are considered good news. This suggests that expected macroeconomic implications of policy change in response to loan conditions drive market reactions, and that changes in the conditionality and disbursement structure of World Bank policy lending were successful in improving market reactions to World Bank programs.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
4.20%
发文量
85
审稿时长
100 days
期刊介绍: The intent of the editors is to consolidate Emerging Markets Review as the premier vehicle for publishing high impact empirical and theoretical studies in emerging markets finance. Preference will be given to comparative studies that take global and regional perspectives, detailed single country studies that address critical policy issues and have significant global and regional implications, and papers that address the interactions of national and international financial architecture. We especially welcome papers that take institutional as well as financial perspectives.
期刊最新文献
Disruptive technology and audit risks: Evidence from FTSE 100 companies Will Southeast Asia be the next global manufacturing hub? A multiway cointegration, causality, and dynamic connectedness analyses Climate policy and China's external balances International financial integration and financial stress of emerging market economies: The role of institutional quality CEO early-life experience and corporate accounting conservatism: Insights from the socio-political context
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1