煤炭行业冲击的经济影响:基于 DSGE 模型的分析

IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Resources Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105315
Boqiang Lin, Zhijun Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文从行业冲击的角度研究煤炭行业对经济的影响。现有研究主要关注煤炭消费与经济之间的关系。本文基于中国 2005 至 2020 年的投入产出表,构建了一个 8 行业动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,以描述煤炭行业冲击对经济的影响。研究结果如下(1) DSGE 模型揭示了煤炭行业与宏观经济之间的密切联系。(2)煤炭行业的冲击对电力行业的影响最大。(3) 煤炭行业的冲击主要通过非能源制造业部门影响宏观经济。(4) 随着经济发展水平的提高,煤炭行业冲击对宏观经济的影响逐渐减弱。计量分析表明,在经济发展的高阶段,煤炭的作用不再显著。面板量化回归模型的结果也显示了同样的结果。基于这些结论,本文认为,随着中国逐步进入新的发展阶段,可以逐步减少煤炭消费。
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Economic effects of shocks in the coal industry: An analysis based on DSGE model

This paper examines the impact of the coal sector on the economy from the perspective of industry shocks. Existing research primarily focuses on the relationship between coal consumption and the economy. An 8-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed, based on China's input-output tables from 2005 to 2020, to depict the economic effects of coal sector shocks. The research findings are: (1) The DSGE model reveals a close connection between the coal industry and the macroeconomy. (2) The coal sector shocks have the largest impact on the electricity sector. (3) Coal sector shocks primarily affect the macroeconomy through non-energy manufacturing sectors. (4) As the economic development level increases, the influence of coal sector shocks on the macroeconomy gradually diminishes. The econometric analysis indicates that the role of coal is no longer significant in the high stage of economic development. The results of the panel quantile regression model also show the same result. Based on these conclusions, this paper suggests that as China gradually enters a new stage of development, it can gradually reduce coal consumption.

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来源期刊
Resources Policy
Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
13.40
自引率
23.50%
发文量
602
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.
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