The impact of COVID-19 on freight transport: The modal shifts from road to waterway

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected freight transport. While several studies have explored the epidemic's impact on individual freight modes, a comprehensive exploration of its effects on transport modal shifts is lacking. This study addresses two inquiries: Can the pandemic catalyze freight modal shifts during its course? Additionally, how can port planners and government agencies leverage new opportunities emerging for freight transport in the post-epidemic period? Based on monthly panel data from September 2021 to August 2022 in 21 Chinese provinces, we investigate the epidemic's impact on modal shifts through difference-in-differences (DID) models, heterogeneity models, and moderating effects models. Moreover, particular emphasis is placed on spatial spillover effects, analyzed through spatial difference-in-differences (SDID) models. The findings reveal that the epidemic facilitated the modal shifts from road to waterway, but these effects are not enduring. Provinces with well-established waterway infrastructure, higher environmental consciousness, and robust policy foundations exhibit a more pronounced enhancement in modal shifts. The impact is further accentuated by lower waterway freight rates. Moreover, the epidemic manifests positive spatial spillover effects. Local outbreaks prompt freight modal shifts from road to water in neighboring provinces. The positive spillover effect primarily occurs between the affected province and its non-affected neighbors.