GP working time and supply, and patient demand in England in 2015-2022: a retrospective study.

Background: English primary care faces a reduction in GP supply and increased demand.

Aim: To explore trends in GP working time and supply, accounting for factors influencing demand for services.

Design and setting: Retrospective observational study in English primary care between 2015 and 2022.

Method: Trends in median GP contracted time commitment were calculated using annual workforce datasets. Three measures of demand were calculated at practice-level: numbers of patients; numbers of older patients (≥65 years); and numbers of chronic conditions using 21 Quality and Outcomes Framework disease registers. Multi-level Poisson models were used to assess associations between GP supply and practice demand, adjusted for deprivation, region, and year.

Results: Between 2015 and 2022, the median full-time equivalent (FTE) of a fully qualified GP decreased from 0.80 to 0.69. There was a 9% increase in registered population per GP FTE (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.14). This increase was steeper using numbers of chronic conditions (32%, IRR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.26 to 1.38). Practices in the most deprived decile had 17% more patients (IRR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.27) and 19% more chronic conditions (IRR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.33) per GP FTE, compared with the least deprived decile. These disparities persisted over time. All regions reported more chronic conditions per GP FTE than London.

Conclusion: Population demand per GP has increased, particularly in terms of chronic conditions. This increase is driven by several factors, including a reduction in GP contracted time commitments. Persistent deprivation gradients in GP supply highlight the need to recruit and retain GPs more equitably.