Simon Packer, Piotr Patrzylas, Rachel Merrick, Clare Sawyer, Andrew McAuley, William Crowe, Gillian Armstrong, Leonardo Green, Lucy Findlater, Charlie Turner, Obaghe Edeghere, Charlotte Anderson
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Sexual contact with the index case was associated with a 11-fold increase in adjusted odds of becoming a case in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (95% CI 5.5-22, <i>p</i> < 0.001). Household contacts outside of London had increased odds compared to London residents (adjusted OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.6-5.4, <i>p</i> < 0.001), while female contacts had reduced odds of becoming a case (aOR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.15-0.95). We found a low overall secondary attack rate among household mpox contacts with strong evidence of increased transmission risk associated with sexual contact. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
我们的目的是估计英国家庭接触者中天花的二次发病率,并确定与传播相关的因素,以便在 2022 年全球疫情爆发期间为接触者的公共卫生管理提供信息。我们通过国家医疗服务体系和公共卫生服务机构收集信息,包括年龄、性别、居住地、环境和接触者类型。对英国的信息进行了汇总。合并了英格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰的记录级数据,并使用多变量逻辑回归法确定与传播相关的因素。英国家庭水痘接触者的二次发病率为 4%(60/1 526)。在英格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰,与指数病例有性接触者成为病例的调整后几率增加了 11 倍(95% CI 5.5-22,p < 0.001)。与伦敦居民相比,伦敦以外的家庭接触者成为病例的几率增加(调整后 OR 2.9,95%CI 1.6-5.4,p < 0.001),而女性接触者成为病例的几率降低(aOR:0.41,95% CI:0.15-0.95)。我们发现,水痘家庭接触者的总体二次发病率较低,但有确凿证据表明性接触会增加传播风险。这些证据将为接触者的风险评估提供依据,并支持优先对有密切亲密接触者进行随访。
Mpox in UK households: estimating secondary attack rates and factors associated with transmission, May-November 2022.
We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of mpox among UK household contacts and determine factors associated with transmission to inform public health management of contacts, during the global outbreak in 2022. Information was collected via NHS and public health services and included age, gender, place of residence, setting, and type of contact. Aggregate information was summarized for the UK. Record level data was combined for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with transmission. The secondary attack rate among UK household mpox contacts was 4% (60/1 526). Sexual contact with the index case was associated with a 11-fold increase in adjusted odds of becoming a case in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (95% CI 5.5-22, p < 0.001). Household contacts outside of London had increased odds compared to London residents (adjusted OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.6-5.4, p < 0.001), while female contacts had reduced odds of becoming a case (aOR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.15-0.95). We found a low overall secondary attack rate among household mpox contacts with strong evidence of increased transmission risk associated with sexual contact. This evidence will inform the risk assessment of contacts and support prioritization of those with close intimate contact for follow up.
期刊介绍:
Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.