Trajectories of work disability and unemployment before and after a common mental disorder diagnosis among young private sector employees in Sweden-a register-based longitudinal study.

Purpose: To identify trajectory groups of work disability (WD), including sick leave and disability pension, and unemployment three years before and six years (from Y-3 to Y + 6) after a common mental disorder (CMD) diagnosis and to investigate associations of socio-demographic, work-related and clinical factors with trajectory membership.

Methods: A longitudinal nationwide register-based study was conducted including individuals aged 22-29 years, gainfully employed in the private sector, with a CMD diagnosis in specialised healthcare or prescribed antidepressant (N = 12,121) in 2014 (Year 0/Y0), with follow-up from Y-3 to Y + 6. Group-based trajectory analyses identified groups of individuals who followed similar trajectories of months of WD and unemployment, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression determined associations between socio-demographic, work-related and clinical factors and trajectory membership.

Results: In the CMD group, we identified three trajectory groups, each for WD and unemployment. Only 7% individuals belonged to a 'Fluctuant high' trajectory group with four months of WD in Y0, which peaked at 7 months in Y + 3 and reduced to 5 months in Y + 6. For unemployment, 15% belonged to an 'Increasing medium' trajectory group that steadily increased from 1.3 months in Y0 to 2.6 months in Y + 6. Sex, educational level and musculoskeletal disorders for WD, and educational level, living area and occupational class for unemployment, influentially determined the variance across the CMD trajectory groups.

Conclusions: Specific vulnerable groups regarding unfavourable WD (women, low education and musculoskeletal disorders) and unemployment (manual work, low education and rural residence) trajectories require special attention regarding their return-to-work process following a CMD diagnosis.