警惕选择性应用贝叶斯系数。

IF 4.3 3区 材料科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC ACS Applied Electronic Materials Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI:10.1037/xge0001666
Marcel R Schreiner,Wilfried Kunde
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引用次数: 0

摘要

贝叶斯因子分析之所以越来越受欢迎,除其他原因外,还因为它可以为零假设提供证据,而传统的频数主义方法则很难做到这一点。一种可以想象的策略显然兼顾了两种方法的有利方面,即首先使用传统的频数分析,然后通过贝叶斯分析来支持理论上有趣的零效应。在此,我们提出这样一个问题:选择性地将贝叶斯分析应用于非显著效应,而不使用频数分析,是否会产生偏差?在两项模拟研究中,我们观察到,当存在真正的群体效应时,这种选择性应用贝叶斯分析实际上会严重高估有利于零假设的证据。虽然这种偏差可以通过在贝叶斯分析中使用信息量更大的先验来减弱,但我们建议不要有选择性地结合使用这种分析方法,而应一致地使用频数分析或贝叶斯分析。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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A cautionary note against selective applications of the Bayes factor.
Bayes factor analysis becomes increasingly popular, among other reasons, because it allows to provide evidence for the null hypothesis, which is not easily possible with the traditional frequentist approach. A conceivable strategy that apparently takes favorable aspects of both approaches on board is to use traditional frequentist analyses first and to support theoretically interesting nil effects by Bayesian analyses thereafter. Here, we asked whether such a selective application of Bayesian analyses to only nonsignificant effects of foregoing frequentist analyses creates bias. In two simulation studies, we observed that such selective application of Bayesian analyses, in fact, severely overestimates evidence in favor of the null hypotheses, when a true population effect exists. While this bias can be attenuated by using more informative priors in the Bayesian analyses, we recommend to not apply such selective combination of analytical approaches, but instead to use either frequentist or Bayesian analyses consistently. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
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7.20
自引率
4.30%
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567
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