Thyroid cancer epidemiology in Ireland from 1994 to 2019 - Rising diagnoses without mortality benefit.

Background: The epidemiology and management of thyroid cancer has changed radically in the recent past, with rising international incidence of early-stage papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) in particular. In this paper, we review the epidemiology of thyroid cancer in Ireland.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study of National Cancer Registry of Ireland data, 1994-2019.

Results: Records from 4158 patients were analysed. 73 % (n = 3040) were female. The average age was 50.4 years. Patient sex did not change over time (p = 0.662), while age decreased significantly (p < 0.0001). The most common diagnoses were PTC (n = 2,905, 70 %) and follicular thyroid carcinoma (n = 549, 13 %). Incidence rose over threefold (1.8-6.2 cases/100000 person-years). The incidence of T1 PTC rose over twelvefold (0.169-2.1 cases/100000 person-years), while the incidence of stage III and IV disease did not change significantly. Five-year disease-specific survival (DSS) was 85 % and varied significantly by diagnosis - 97 % for PTC versus 5 % for anaplastic thyroid carcinoma. Survival did not change significantly over time. Male sex was a risk factor for more advanced disease (p < 0.0001) but did not independently predict overall survival except in PTC (HR 1.6, p = 0.03). The use of radioactive iodine declined markedly from 49 % to 12.5 %. RAI improved DSS for PTC patients aged over 55 years (p = 0.02) without a notable effect on survival for those under 55 years (p = 0.99).

Conclusion: The epidemiology and management of thyroid cancer in Ireland has changed dramatically in a manner reflective of international trends.