Radiomics based on MRI to predict recurrent L4-5 disc herniation after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.

Background: In recent years, radiomics has been shown to be an effective tool for the diagnosis and prediction of diseases. Existing evidence suggests that imaging features play a key role in predicting the recurrence of lumbar disk herniation (rLDH). Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the risk of rLDH in patients undergoing percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD) using radiomics to facilitate the development of more rational surgical and perioperative management strategies.

Method: This was a retrospective case-control study involving 487 patients who underwent PELD at the L4/5 level. The rLDH and negative groups were matched using propensity score matching (PSM). A total of 1409 radiomic features were extracted from preoperative lumbar MRI images using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) analysis, t-test, and LASSO analysis. Afterward, 6 predictive models were constructed and evaluated using ROC curve analysis, AUC, specificity, sensitivity, confusion matrix, and 2 repeated 3-fold cross-validations. Lastly, the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) analysis provided visual explanations for the models.

Results: Following screening and matching, 128 patients were included in both the recurrence and control groups. Moreover, 18 of the extracted radiomic features were selected for generating six models, which achieved an AUC of 0.551-0.859 for predicting rLDH. Among these models, SVM, RF, and XG Boost exhibited superior performances. Finally, cross-validation revealed that their accuracy was 0.674-0.791, 0.647-0.729, and 0.674-0.718.

Conclusion: Radiomics based on MRI can be used to predict the risk of rLDH, offering more comprehensive guidance for perioperative treatment by extracting imaging information that cannot be visualized with the naked eye. Meanwhile, the accuracy and generalizability of the model can be improved in the future by incorporating more data and conducting multicenter studies.