The flash droughts across the south-central United States in 2022: Drivers, predictability, and impacts

A rare subseasonal-to-seasonal phenomenon – two consecutive flash drought events interrupted by a period of recovery – occurred across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri, spanning the summer and early fall of 2022. These flash drought events (the first in June–July, the second in August–September) led to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought conditions via the United States Drought Monitor across much of the region following the first period of rapid drought intensification, and extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought conditions by the end of the second event. A notable driver of both flash drought events included a persistent upper-level ridge either centered over or shifted west and upstream of the flash drought region, leading to broad-scale subsidence and reduced mid-level moisture which acted to limit precipitation development and increase evaporative demand. In addition, several heatwave events developed during the warm season in 2022 and either (1) acted to drive flash drought development via increased evaporative demand or (2) were enhanced by land surface desiccation and land-atmosphere feedbacks following rapid drought intensification. Furthermore, S2S composite forecasts predicted drought development for both events. However, only 20% of the ensembles predicted rapid drought development associated with flash drought for the first event and 16% of the ensembles predicted rapid drought development during the second event. This result highlights a key challenge in S2S prediction of rapidly developing drought conditions versus that of more conventional and slower drought development. The ensembles that did predict rapid drought intensification were associated with the forecasting of positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the south-central United States (first event) or an amplified wave pattern centered over the west-central United States (second event). Lastly, the compounding effects of two flash droughts in a single warm season led to substantial impacts on agricultural, environmental, and hydrologic sectors across the region.