Responses of vegetation to hydroclimatic variables on the Loess Plateau after large scale vegetation restoration

Understanding plant-water relations is essential for effective regional water management and promoting ecologically sustainable development on the Loess Plateau, especially in the context of the Grain for Green project initiated in 1999. This study evaluated the variations in vegetation variables (leaf area index, enhanced vegetation index, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary production) and hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, total water storage, aridity index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) from 2003 to 2020, along with their interactions across the Loess Plateau. Our analysis revealed a general increase in vegetation variables, with the largest increase observed in the forest expansion areas. Precipitation and the aridity index exhibited significant upwards trends, while total water storage showed a significant decline, particularly in the forest expansion areas. Vegetation variables were more sensitive to changes in total water storage across the Loess Plateau. In the northwest region, where large-scale croplands and grasslands expansion occurred, vegetation variables also showed sensitivity to precipitation. Lag effect analysis revealed short time lags (1–3 months) between vegetation and hydroclimatic variables, expect for total water storage (6 months). Overall, human activities and climate factors contributed 58.4% and 41.6% to the increase in leaf area index, and 52.2% and 47.8% to the increase in gross primary production, respectively. In relatively arid environments, precipitation contributed over 50% to the observed vegetation greening. This study underscores the increasingly significant role of human activities in driving vegetation greening on the Loess Plateau, particularly in large-scale afforestation areas.