{"title":"风暴中的港湾比特币如何应对气候变化和全球不确定性带来的挑战","authors":"Houjian Li, Fangyuan Luo, Lili Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2024.103674","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding Bitcoin's (BTC) performance and hedging effects under various uncertainties is crucial. This study combines time-varying Granger causality (TVGC) tests and wavelet time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methods to examine the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and climate uncertainty (SOI), geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), crude oil volatility (OVX), and market volatility (VIX) across both time and frequency domains, from December 19, 2017, to October 16, 2023. The results show that in recent years, the long-term impact of SOI on BTC, as well as political and economic uncertainties, is hard to ignore, but BTC cannot serve as a safe-haven asset against SOI. Wavelet decomposition indicates that during extreme events, BTC exhibits a leading positive co-movement with EPU, GPR, VIX, and OVX in the long term, showing potential as a hedging asset. However, TVGC and wavelet decomposition spillover results further suggest that BTC's hedging capacity against different economic and political uncertainties may be limited during certain extreme events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14444,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Economics & Finance","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103674"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Harbor in the storm: How Bitcoin navigates challenges of climate change and global uncertainties\",\"authors\":\"Houjian Li, Fangyuan Luo, Lili Guo\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.iref.2024.103674\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Understanding Bitcoin's (BTC) performance and hedging effects under various uncertainties is crucial. This study combines time-varying Granger causality (TVGC) tests and wavelet time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methods to examine the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and climate uncertainty (SOI), geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), crude oil volatility (OVX), and market volatility (VIX) across both time and frequency domains, from December 19, 2017, to October 16, 2023. The results show that in recent years, the long-term impact of SOI on BTC, as well as political and economic uncertainties, is hard to ignore, but BTC cannot serve as a safe-haven asset against SOI. Wavelet decomposition indicates that during extreme events, BTC exhibits a leading positive co-movement with EPU, GPR, VIX, and OVX in the long term, showing potential as a hedging asset. However, TVGC and wavelet decomposition spillover results further suggest that BTC's hedging capacity against different economic and political uncertainties may be limited during certain extreme events.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14444,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Review of Economics & Finance\",\"volume\":\"96 \",\"pages\":\"Article 103674\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Review of Economics & Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105905602400666X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Review of Economics & Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105905602400666X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Harbor in the storm: How Bitcoin navigates challenges of climate change and global uncertainties
Understanding Bitcoin's (BTC) performance and hedging effects under various uncertainties is crucial. This study combines time-varying Granger causality (TVGC) tests and wavelet time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methods to examine the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and climate uncertainty (SOI), geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), crude oil volatility (OVX), and market volatility (VIX) across both time and frequency domains, from December 19, 2017, to October 16, 2023. The results show that in recent years, the long-term impact of SOI on BTC, as well as political and economic uncertainties, is hard to ignore, but BTC cannot serve as a safe-haven asset against SOI. Wavelet decomposition indicates that during extreme events, BTC exhibits a leading positive co-movement with EPU, GPR, VIX, and OVX in the long term, showing potential as a hedging asset. However, TVGC and wavelet decomposition spillover results further suggest that BTC's hedging capacity against different economic and political uncertainties may be limited during certain extreme events.
期刊介绍：
The International Review of Economics & Finance (IREF) is a scholarly journal devoted to the publication of high quality theoretical and empirical articles in all areas of international economics, macroeconomics and financial economics. Contributions that facilitate the communications between the real and the financial sectors of the economy are of particular interest.
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