通过基于集群的评估确定和跟踪气候变化减缓战略

Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo, Tobias Kruse, Mauro Pisu
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摘要

为了指导减缓气候变化的努力,我们识别并描述了过去二十年中各国采取的不同类型的减缓战略。该分析利用了经合组织气候行动和政策衡量框架(CAPMF)新颖而丰富的政策库,涵盖了 2000-2020 年间 50 个国家的 120 多个政策变量。数据集中的所有国家在过去二十年中都增加了气候政策工具的数量及其严格程度,但速度不同,使用的政策工具也不同。通过统计聚类分析,我们确定了四种不同类型的减排战略,它们在减排政策的构成和严格程度上各不相同。回归结果显示,排放量与国家减排战略的总体严格程度呈负相关。有证据还支持这样的假设,即对于包含更多样化手段的减排战略来说,这种关系更强,这表明可能存在政策协同效应。
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Identifying and tracking climate change mitigation strategies with a cluster-based assessment
To guide climate change mitigation efforts, we identify and characterize the different types of mitigation strategies countries adopted over the last two decades. The analysis exploits the novel and rich policy repository of the OECD’s Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF), covering more than 120 policy variables and 50 countries over 2000–2020. All countries in the dataset increased the number of climate policy instruments and their stringency over the past two decades, but at a different pace and using different policy instruments. Using statistical cluster analysis, we identify four distinct types of mitigation strategies, which differ in the composition and stringency of mitigation policies. Regression results show that emissions are negatively associated with the overall stringency of the country’s mitigation strategies. Evidence also supports the hypothesis that this relationship is stronger for mitigation strategies comprising a more diverse set of instruments, pointing to possible policy synergies.
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